Global Commodity Market Wrap-Up

Last week, commodity prices traded in a mixed tone as impact of rising dollar index prices offsetted by increasing Ukraine-Russia tension . Meanwhile, Precious metals are trading in a range with weak tone recently. Gold prices have traded in a range with a weekly loss of 0.36% while silver prices also settled at a weekly loss of 0.85%. Base metals has also got some upside traction from key supporting levels thanks to rising energy prices. Copper and Lead prices have witnessed a weekly surge of 0.47% and 0.58% respectively while Zinc prices has also moved up and settled with a weekly gain of 0.40%.

On the Energy front, Crude oil prices have rallied from lower levels due to overall energy shortage across the world and settled at a weekly gain of 3.80%. Natural gas prices have shown some correction from higher levels and settled at a weekly loss of 2.37%. Agricultural commodity prices have traded in a negative territory with Soybean and Sugar prices witnessed 1.99% and 1.63% weekly gains respectively. Notably, Corn prices have declined sharply last week and settled at a weekly loss of 6.47%.

In the recent week, primarily all the commodity prices are showing mixed trend. Precious metal prices are still showing some downward correction while Base metals is now taking resistance from crucial levels and trading in a moderate zone. On energy front, Crude oil and Natural gas prices are still trading in positive territory. However, Natural gas prices are now showing some reversal signs with some weak technical analysis pattern that might depress the prices in the coming sessions. Agricultural commodity basket is getting some support from lower levels with Corn prices are getting support from its moving averages. Now all eyes are on the upcoming USDA WASDE report which might decide the fate of the agricultural commodity prices for the coming weeks.

The upcoming macro events that may impact the market sentiments include an update on Unemployment Claims, Natural Gas Inventories, US Consumer Price Index and USDA WASDE report released monthly.

Having understood the global commodities performance over the past one week, taking cues from major global economic events, and based on our technical analysis, noted below are our recommendations with the generic insights, entry price, target prices, and stop-loss for Natural Gas July Futures (NYMEX: NGN22) and Corn July Futures (CBOT: CN2) for the next 1-2 weeks’ duration:

Natural Gas July Futures Contract (NYMEX: NGN22)

Price Action and Technical Indicator Analysis:

NYMEX Natural Gas July Futures' prices were trading in a rising channel pattern and the prices recently broke the rising wedge pattern by downside on 31^st May 2022 and prices are now getting resistance of the lower band of the pattern further indicating possibility of decline in prices in the coming period. There is a RSI negative divergence with price clearly visible on a daily chart that further support our bearish stance. The leading indicator RSI (14-period) is trading near to the overbought region at ~64.28 levels and supporting a negative stance. Now the next crucial support level appears to be at USD 8.54, and prices may test that level in the coming sessions (1-2 weeks).

As per the above-mentioned price action and technical indicators analysis, we can conclude that Natural Gas July Futures (NGN22) is looking technically well-placed for a ‘Sell’ rating. Investment decision should be made depending on an investors’ appetite on upside potential, risks, and any previous holdings. This recommendation is purely based on technical analysis, and fundamental analysis has not been considered. Technical summary of our ‘Sell’ recommendation is as follows:

CBOT Corn July Futures (CBOT: CN2)

Price Action and Technical Indicator Analysis:

On a weekly chart, CBOT Corn July futures’ price reversed from its 21-period SMA and broke the downward sloping trend line by upside. The price is trading above its 21-period and 50-period SMA, which also support our bullish stance. The momentum oscillator RSI (14-Period) is trading at ~60.92 levels further indicating bullish momentum. Now the next crucial resistance level appears to be at USc 820, and prices may test that level in the coming sessions (1-2 weeks).

As per the above-mentioned price action and technical indicators analysis, we can conclude that Corn July Futures (CN2) is looking technically well-placed for a ‘Buy’ rating. Investment decision should be made depending on an investors’ appetite on upside potential, risks, and any previous holdings. This recommendation is purely based on technical analysis, and fundamental analysis has not been considered. The summary of our recommendation is as follows:

Upcoming Major Global Economic Events

Market events occur on a day-to-day basis depending on the frequency of the data and generally include an update on employment, inflation, GDP, WASDE report, consumer sentiments, etc. Noted below are the upcoming week's major global economic events that could impact the commodities prices:

Futures Contract Specifications 

Disclaimers 

Investment Related Risks: Based on the technical analysis, the risks are defined as per risk-reward ratio (~0.80:1.00), however, returns are generated within 1-2 weeks’ time frame. This may be looked at by Investors with sufficient risk appetite looking for returns within short investment duration. Investment recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and fundamental performance of the commodities has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the commodity prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risk, currency risks, and social and political instability risks etc.

Entry Price: For the given recommendation(s), the Entry Price is assumed to be at or above/ at or below a certain level. However, a slight deviation in the 'Entry Price' can be considered depending upon the upside/downside potential expected and taking into consideration the Target levels indicated. For example: - An Investor can consider entering the commodity at or above/ at or below a certain range (1%-1.5%) from the Entry Levels recommended depending upon the potential upside/downside expected. Therefore, there can be a slight deviation between the ‘Entry Price’ and the ‘Current Market Price (CMP)’. The ‘Entry Price’ indicated above may or may not be same as the ‘CMP’ shown in the price chart.

Note 1: Investors can consider exiting from the commodity if the Target Price mentioned as per the Technical Analysis has been achieved and subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 2: How to Read the Charts?

The Green colour line reflects the 21-period moving average while the red line indicates the 50- period moving average. SMA helps to identify existing price trend. If the prices are trading above the 21-period and 50-period moving average, then it shows prices are currently trading in a bullish trend.

The Black colour line in the chart’s lower segment reflects the Relative Strength Index (14-Period) which indicates price momentum and signals momentum in trend. A reading of 70 or above suggests overbought status while a reading of 30 or below suggests an oversold status.

The Blue colour bars in the chart’s lower segment show the volume of the commodity. Commodity with high volumes is more liquid compared to the lesser ones. Liquidity in commodity helps in easier and faster execution of the order. 

The Orange colour lines are the trend lines drawn by connecting two or more price points and used for trend identification purposes. The trend line also acts as a line of support and resistance.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level where-in the commodity prices tend to find support if they are falling, and downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest.

Resistance: A level where-in the commodity prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest.

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the commodity prices.

Risk Reward Ratio: The risk reward ratio is the difference between an entry point to a stop loss and profit level. We suggest ~80% Stop Loss of the Target 1 from the entry point.

 

The reference date for all price data, volumes, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is June 08, 2022 (Chicago, IL, USA 04.14 AM (GMT -5). The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV. 

Note: Trading decisions require a thorough analysis by investors. Technical reports in general chart out metrics that may be assessed by investors before any commodity evaluation. The above are illustrative analytical factors used for evaluating the commodity; other parameters can be looked at along with additional risks per se.