US Markets Round-Up

This week, the Russell 3000 index, an important benchmark of the US stock market across market capitalizations, started on a marginally positive note and made a new lifetime high of 2612.15. However, the index witnessed correction from the higher levels in the latter part of the week and closed at 2583.89 with a week till date (WTD) loss of ~0.79 percent on July 15, 2021. Other major indices such as S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite also showed marginal negative movement during the week. On July 15, 2021, the S&P 500 index settled at 4360.03 with a WTD loss of ~0.22 percent, while NASDAQ Composite Index settled at 14543.13 with a WTD loss of ~1.08 percent.

Increasing inflation pressuring the indices at the higher levels.As per the data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.9 percent in June and registered the largest 1-month change since June 2008. Other economic data released during the week such as the Philly Fed manufacturing index, industrial production, etc. also supported a negative stance for the indices. However, a decrease in the US weekly unemployment claims to 360,000 from 386,000 (revised level) in the prior week limited the downside movement.

Having understood the US market performance over the week, taking cues from major global news, and based on our technical analysis of the Russell 3000 index for the upcoming week, now let us have a look at the two NYSE/ NASDAQ listed stock picks from the technical standpoint. Noted below are our recommendations based on generic insights, entry price, target prices, and stop-loss for Cousins Properties Inc (NYSE: CUZ) and Murphy USA Inc (NYSE: MUSA) for the next 2-4 weeks duration:

Cousins Properties Inc 

Cousins Properties Inc (NYSE: CUZ) is a real estate investment trust. Its a self-administered and self-managed REIT that develops, leases, acquires and manages owns office properties. Noted below are the key price indicators for the stock:

Price Action Analysis (on the Weekly Chart) 

CUZ's prices are sustaining above an upward sloping trend line and formed a bullish engulfing (bullish reversal) candlestick pattern on the weekly chart, indicating the probability of an upside direction. Prices took the support of another downward sloping trend line, further supporting a positive stance. Now a major resistance level for the stock appears at USD 47 and prices may test the level in the short-term (2-4 weeks). 

Technical Indicators Analysis (On the Weekly Chart)

On the weekly chart, RSI is trading at ~59.72 levels and indicating a positive trend for the stock. The weekly volumes also seem supportive of an upside movement. The CMP is above the 21-period and 50-period SMA with a positive crossover, further providing support for an upward direction.

Financial Summary:

Summary of the Key Financial Metrics for the past four years for Cousins Properties Inc is as follows:

General Recommendation:

As per the above-mentioned price action and technical indicators analysis, we can conclude that Cousins Properties Inc looking technically well-placed on the chart, and we have a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock. Investment decision should be made depending on an investors’ appetite on upside potential, risks, and any previous holdings. This recommendation is purely based on technical analysis, and fundamental analysis has not been considered in this report. The summary of our recommendation is as follows:

Murphy USA Inc

Murphy USA Inc (NYSE: MUSA) is a specialty retail company that deals in the marketing of motor fuel products and merchandise. Noted below are the key price Indicators for the stock:

Price Action Analysis (on the Weekly Chart)

MUSA's prices reversed from the lower levels after forming a bullish harami (bullish reversal) candlestick pattern on the weekly chart. Prices also took the support of a downward sloping trend line and recently broke another downward sloping trend line on the upside, further supporting a positive stance. Now a major resistance level for the stock appears at USD 159 and prices may test the level in the short-term (2-4 weeks). A further breakout above UAD 159 backed by the volumes may extend buying in the stock to USD 170 level.

Technical Indicators Analysis (On the Weekly Chart)

On the weekly chart, RSI is trading at ~56.38 levels and indicating a positive trend for the stock. The weekly volumes also seem supportive of an upside movement. The CMP is above the 21-period and 50-period SMA with a positive crossover, further providing support for an upward direction.

Financial Summary: 

Summary of the Key Financial Metrics for the past four years for Murphy USA Inc is as follows:

General Recommendation:

As per the above-mentioned price action and technical indicators analysis, we can conclude that Murphy USA Inc is looking technically well-placed on the chart, and we have a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock. Investment decision should be made depending on an investors’ appetite for upside potential, risks, and any previous holdings. This recommendation is purely based on technical analysis, and fundamental analysis has not been considered in this report. The summary of our recommendation is as follows:

Upcoming Major Global Economic Events

Market events occur on a day-to-day basis depending on the frequency of the data and generally include an update on employment, inflation, GDP, consumer sentiments, etc. Noted below are the upcoming week's major global economic events that could impact the Russell 3000 Index and stocks’ prices. 

Investment Related Risks: Based on the technical analysis, the risks are defined as per risk-reward ratio (~0.60:1.00), however, returns are generated within 2-4 weeks’ time frame. This may be looked at by Investors with sufficient risk appetite looking for returns within short investment duration. Investment recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, and social and political instability risks etc.

Entry Price: For the given recommendation(s), Entry Price is assumed be at or above a certain level. However, a slight deviation on either side in the ‘Entry Price’ can be considered depending upon the potential expected or indicated.

Note 1: Investors can consider exiting from the stock if the Target Price or Stop loss mentioned as per the technical analysis has been achieved and subject to the factors discussed above. 

Note 2: How to Read the Charts?

The Green colour line reflects the 21-period moving average while the red line indicates the 50- period moving average. SMA helps to identify existing price trend. If the prices are trading above the 21-period and 50-period moving average, then it shows prices are currently trading in a bullish trend.

The Black colour line in the chart’s lower segment reflects the Relative Strength Index (14-Period) which indicates price momentum and signals momentum in trend. A reading of 70 or above suggests overbought status while a reading of 30 or below suggests an oversold status.

The Blue colour bars in the chart’s lower segment show the volume of the stock. The volume is the number of shares that changed hands during a given day. Stocks with high volumes are more liquid than stocks with lesser volume as liquidity in stocks helps in easier and faster execution of the order.

The Orange colour lines are the trend lines drawn by connecting two or more price points and used for trend identification purposes. The trend line also acts as a line of support and resistance.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level where-in the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest.

Resistance: A level where-in the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest.

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.

Risk Reward Ratio: Risk reward ratio is the difference between an entry point to a stop loss and profit level. We suggest ~60% Stop Loss of the Target 1 from the entry point. 

A trailing stop-loss is a modification of stop-loss in case of favourable movement in the price to protect the gains. We suggest Investors to Trail the Stop-Loss as per the aforementioned levels if the stock price achieves more than 60% of the Target 1. Investors should consider exiting from the position as per the Trailing Stop-Loss level if the price starts moving downwards after achieving more than 60% of the Target 1. 

The reference date for all price data, volumes, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is July 15, 2021. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV. 

Abbreviations

CMP: Current Market Price

SMA: Simple Moving Average

RSI: Relative Strength Index

USD: United States dollar 

Note: Trading decisions require a thorough analysis by investors. Technical reports in general chart out metrics that may be assessed by investors before any stock evaluation. The above are illustrative analytical factors used for evaluating the stocks; other parameters can be looked at along with additional risks per se. Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.