CuriosityStream Inc.
CURI Details
FY20 Results Update: CuriosityStream Inc. (NASDAQ: CURI) is a global factual streaming service and media company. The market capitalization of the company as on 16 April 2021, stood at ~$698.88 million. During FY20, the company reported a revenue of $39.6 million, an increase compared to revenue of $18 million in the prior year. Gross margin stood at ~61% during the year. The net loss narrowed down to $38.6 million in FY20, from a loss of $42.5 million in FY19. It ended the period with a cash position of $42.4 million as of 31 December 2020. CURI announced several original series throughout the year and has grown its subscriber base.
FY20 Financial Performance (Source: Company Reports)
Outlook: The company expects full-year 2021 revenue of at least $71 million, reflecting growth of ~80% y-o-y. It has been reported that the company will announce the financial results of the first quarter of 2021 on 11 May 2021.
Key Risks: The company’s profitability depends on its subscription base, and any adverse impact or macro conditions impacting the subscriber base has also the potential to threaten the business of the company.
Valuation Methodology: EV/Sales Multiple Based Relative Valuation (Illustrative)
Data Source: Refinitiv, Thomson Reuters, Analysis by Kalkine Group
*% Premium/(Discount) is based on our assessment of the company’s NTM trading multiple after considering its key growth drivers, economic moat, stock's historical trading multiples versus peer average/median, and investment risks.
Stock Recommendation: The company has appointed media and communications industry veteran Ashley Huston as the Vice President of Communications on 10 February 2021. The stock of CURI is trading below its average 52-weeks’ levels of $24-$7.44. The stock of CURI gave a positive return of ~23.60% in the past six months and a negative return of ~3.69% in the past one week. On a technical analysis front, the stock of CURI has a support level of ~$11.94 and a resistance level of ~$15.05. We have valued the stock using an EV/Sales multiple-based illustrative relative valuation and have arrived at a target price of low double-digit upside (in % terms). We believe the company can trade at a slight premium to its peer average EV/Sales (NTM Trading multiple), considering the significant improvement in financial performance and the robust revenue guidance. For the purpose, we have taken peers such as ViacomCBS Inc (NASDAQ: VIACA), Roku Inc (NASDAQ: ROKU), Chicken Soup for The Soul Entertainment Inc (NASDAQ: CSSE), to name a few. Considering the expected upside in valuation and current trading levels, improved financial performance, decent cash position and the key risks associated with the business, we recommend a ‘Speculative Buy’ rating on the stock at the closing price of $13.30, down by 1.19% as on April 16, 2021.
CURI Daily Technical Chart (Source: Refinitiv, Thomson Reuters)
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