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US Technical Analysis Report

One NYSE-Listed Trading in a Buy Zone as the Russell 3000 Paused for a Breather – AMR

Aug 19, 2022

US Markets Round-Up

This week, the Russell 3000 index, an important benchmark of the US stock market across market capitalizations, started on a positive note but was unable to maintain the same. The index made a low of 2464.681 during the week and settled at 2483.109 with a week-to-date (WTD) loss of ~0.11 percent on August 18, 2022. Other major indices such as S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite witnessed mixed movement for the week. On August 18, 2022, the S&P 500 index settled at 4283.74 with a WTD gain of ~0.08 percent, while the NASDAQ Composite Index settled at 12965.341 with a WTD loss of ~0.63 percent.

A pessimistic advance estimate of US Retail and Food Services Sales data released during the week impacted the market sentiments. However, an improved number for the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey and US Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims, which decreased to 250,000 from 252,000 (revised level) in the prior week, limited the losses.

Having understood the US market performance over the week, taking cues from major global news, and based on technical analysis of the Russell 3000 index for the upcoming week, now let’s have a look at the one NYSE listed stock to pick from the technical standpoint. Noted below recommendation is based on the entry price, target prices, and stop-loss for Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (NYSE: AMR) for the next 2-4 weeks duration: 

Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc.

Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (NYSE: AMR) is a mining company supplying metallurgical products to the steel industry. Noted below are the key price indicators for the stock:

Price Action Analysis (on the Daily Chart)

AMR’s prices broke a downward sloping trendline by an upside and are sustaining above the breakout level, indicating the possibility of upside momentum hereon. The recent upside movement in the stock is backed by increasing volumes as well, further supporting a positive bias. Now the next major resistance level for the stock appears at USD 180.00, and prices may test this level in the short-term (2-4 weeks). A further movement above USD 180.00 may extend buying in the stock.


Technical Indicators Analysis (On the Daily Chart)

On the daily chart, the leading indicator RSI (14-period) is moving in a positive zone and showing a reading of 60.43. The volumes seem supportive for the next upside movement. The prices are trading above the trend-following indicators 21-period and 50-period SMA, which may support the prices.

General Recommendation

As per the above-mentioned price action and technical indicators analysis, Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. is looking technically well-placed on the chart, and a ‘Speculative Buy’ recommendation has been given on the stock. Investment decision should be made depending on an individual’s appetite for upside potential, risks, and any previous holdings. This recommendation is purely based on technical analysis, and fundamental analysis has not been considered in this report. The summary of recommendation is as follows:

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic and prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing. 

Upcoming Major Global Economic Events 

Market events occur on a day-to-day basis depending on the frequency of the data and generally include an update on employment, inflation, GDP, consumer sentiments, etc. Noted below are the upcoming week's major global economic events that could impact the Russell 3000 Index and stocks’ prices:

Related Risks: This report may be looked at from high-risk perspective and recommendations are provided are for a short duration. Recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, social and political instability risks etc.

Note 1: Individuals can consider exiting from the stock if the Target Price or Stop loss mentioned as per the technical analysis has been achieved and subject to the factors discussed above. 

Note 2: How to Read the Charts?

The Green colour line reflects the 21-period moving average while the red line indicates the 50- period moving average. SMA helps to identify existing price trend. If the prices are trading above the 21-period and 50-period moving average, then it shows prices are currently trading in a bullish trend.

The Black colour line in the chart’s lower segment reflects the Relative Strength Index (14-Period) which indicates price momentum and signals momentum in trend. A reading of 70 or above suggests overbought status while a reading of 30 or below suggests an oversold status.

The Blue colour bars in the chart’s lower segment show the volume of the stock. The volume is the number of shares that changed hands during a given day. Stocks with high volumes are more liquid than stocks with lesser volume as liquidity in stocks helps in easier and faster execution of the order.

The Orange colour lines are the trend lines drawn by connecting two or more price points and used for trend identification purposes. The trend line also acts as a line of support and resistance.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock. 

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock. 

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices. 

Risk Reward Ratio: Risk reward ratio is the difference between an entry point to a stop loss and profit level. This report is based on ~60% Stop Loss of the Target 1 from the entry point. 

A trailing stop-loss is a modification of stop-loss in case of favourable movement in the price to protect the gains. Individuals can Trail the Stop-Loss as per the aforementioned levels if the stock price achieves more than 50% of the Target 1. Individuals should consider exiting from the position as per the Trailing Stop-Loss level if the price starts moving downwards after achieving more than 50% of the Target 1. 

The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is August 18, 2022. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Abbreviations

CMP: Current Market Price

SMA: Simple Moving Average

RSI: Relative Strength Index

USD: United States dollar 

Note: Trading decisions require a thorough analysis by individuals. Technical reports in general chart out metrics that may be assessed by individuals before any stock evaluation. The above are illustrative analytical factors used for evaluating the stocks; other parameters can be looked at along with additional risks per se. Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.


Disclaimer-

Kalkine Equities LLC provides general information about companies and their securities. The information contained in the reports, including any recommendations regarding the value of or transactions in any securities, does not take into account any of your investment objectives, financial situation or needs. Kalkine Equities LLC is not registered as an investment adviser in the U.S. with either the federal or state government. Before you make a decision about whether to invest in any securities, you should take into account your own objectives, financial situation and needs and seek independent financial advice. All information in our reports represents our views as at the date of publication and may change without notice.

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