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mid-cap

Make a Wager on These US-Listed Stock – CHPT, ONTF, AGRX

Dec 10, 2021 | Team Kalkine
Make a Wager on These US-Listed Stock – CHPT, ONTF, AGRX

 

ChargePoint Holdings, Inc.

CHPT Details

ChargePoint Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CHPT) develops, produces, and sells networked electric vehicle (EV) charging system infrastructure, as well as subscription-based cloud-based services that allow consumers to find, reserve, authenticate, and pay for EV charging sessions. In addition, the network provides a range of web-based interfaces for commercial, fleet, and residential users. CHPT earns money by selling Networked Charging Systems, Cloud Services, and extended parts and labor warranties, often paid for in advance.

Latest News

  • Board Appointment: On December 02, 2021, CHPT announced the addition of Elaine L. Chao to its board of directors. Secretary Chao, who has been confirmed to two Cabinet positions by the US Senate on a strong bipartisan basis, is also a national and global leader in the public, private and nonprofit sectors. She is currently on the boards of Kroger Co., Hyliion Holdings Corp. and Embark Technology, Inc.
  • Geographic Expansions: On October 06, 2021, CHPT closed the acquisition of has·to·be., a leading European developer of charging software platforms. The transaction is expected to advance CHPT's market status in Europe's charging ecosystem.

Q3FY22 Results

  • Surge in Revenue: The company reported a sharp uptick of 78.84% in revenue to USD 65.03 million in Q3FY22 (ended October 31, 2021) compared to USD 36.37 million in Q3FY21, resulting from significant growth across the commercial, fleet, and residential verticals in North America and Europe.
  • Increase in Net Loss: However, its net loss for Q3FY22 increased to USD 69.44 million from USD 40.89 million reported in Q3FY21.
  • Strong Balance Sheet: CHPT exited the quarter with a cash balance of USD 365.49 million and no outstanding debt.

Key Risks

  • Supplier Concentration: The manufacturing of CHPT's charging stations relies on a small number of suppliers. In addition, a single vendor supplies part of the company's goods and components. As a result, any breach of contract by this vendor might harm the company's operations.
  • Stiff Competition: The company operates in the highly competitive and rapidly shifting EV charging market. The introduction of competitor goods with new capabilities or technologies could adversely affect CHPT's financials.

Outlook

  • Revenue Estimate: In its Q3FY22 earnings release, CHPT stated that it expects to generate USD 73 – 78 million in revenues in Q4FY22 (ending January 31, 2021). In addition, it has raised its revenue forecast for FY22 to USD 235 – 240 million.

Valuation Methodology: Price/Sales Per Share Multiple Based Relative Valuation

(Analysis by Kalkine Group)

* % Premium/(Discount) is based on our assessment of the company's NTM trading multiple after considering its key growth drivers, economic moat, stock's historical trading multiples versus peer average/median, and investment risks.

CHPT Daily Technical Chart (Source: REFINITIV)

Stock Recommendation

CHPT's stock price fell 53.26% in the past twelve months and is currently leaning towards the lower band of its 52-week range of USD 17.60 to USD 49.48. The stock is currently trading below its 50 and 200 DMA levels, and its RSI Index is at 32.18. We have valued the stock using the Price/Sales-based relative valuation methodology and arrived at a target price of USD 24.70.

Considering the significant correction in the stock price, strategic acquisitions, strong balance sheet, positive outlook, and associated risks, we recommend a "Speculative Buy" rating on the stock at the current price of USD 19.585, down 5.34% as of December 10, 2021, 11:36 AM ET.

* The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

* All forecasted figures and industry information have been taken from REFINITIV.

* Depending upon the risk tolerance, investors may consider unwinding their positions in a respective stock once the estimated target price is reached. 

ON24, Inc.

ONTF Details

ON24, Inc. (NYSE: ONTF) provides cloud-based digital experience platforms that help companies turn client engagement into revenue through interactive webinars, virtual events, and multimedia content experiences. Its platform's portfolio of content-rich digital experience products generates and captures actionable, real-time data at scale from millions of professionals every month, providing businesses with buying signals and behavioral insights to convert prospects into customers more efficiently.

Latest News:

  • Share Repurchase Program: ONTF authorized a share repurchase program on December 02, 2021, in which it may purchase up to USD 50 million of its common stock. The repurchase program has an 18-month timeframe, and ON24 anticipates that repurchases will take place over several quarters.
  • Integration with HubSpot: ONTF announced on November 15, 2021, that its platform had been integrated with HubSpot, a leading CRM platform for scaling companies, and that it had been featured in the HubSpot App Marketplace. The ONTF and HubSpot integration provides enterprises with essential audience analytics, identifying which digital channels and activities generate the most leads and sales prospects.

9MFY21 Results:

  • Progress in Revenues: The company's total revenues increased by 46.23% during 9MFY21 (ended September 30, 2021) to USD 151.58 million from USD 103.66 million during 9MFY20, primarily driven by an overall increase in digital experience platform revenue.
  • Incurred Losses: ONTF witnessed a net loss of USD 14.75 million during 9MFY21 from a net income of USD 11.25 million reported during 9MFY20 due to an increase in operating expenses.
  • Healthy Balance Sheet: As of September 30, 2021, the company's cash and cash equivalents (including marketing investments) stood at USD 399.68 million, with a total debt of USD 4.67 million.

Key Risks:

  • Reliance in Third Parties: ONTF's computing, storage, processing, application integration, and other services rely on third-party data center hosting providers. Third-party vendors can also provide content delivery networks (CDNs) and integration services. As a result, these third parties' disruption in service or facility damage might significantly impact ONTF's operations.

Outlook:

  • Q4FY21 Estimates: ONTF announced in its Q3FY21 press release that it anticipates sales in the range of USD 51.0 – 52.0 million for Q4FY21, with a non-GAAP operating loss of USD 4.7 – 3.7 million. It also estimates non-GAAP EPS of USD (0.10) – (0.08), based on 48.2 million basic and diluted shares outstanding.
  • FY21 Estimates: ONTF estimates revenue of USD 202.6 – 203.6 million in FY21, with non-GAAP operating income ranging between USD (0.9) and 0.1 million. It also estimates non-GAAP EPS of USD (0.04) to (0.02), based on 43.6 million basic and diluted shares outstanding.

Valuation Methodology: EV/Sales Multiple Based Relative Valuation

(Analysis by Kalkine Group)

* % Premium/(Discount) is based on our assessment of the company's NTM trading multiple after considering its key growth drivers, economic moat, stock's historical trading multiples versus peer average/median, and investment risks.

ONTF Daily Technical Chart (Source: REFINITIV)

Stock Recommendation:

ONTF's stock price has fallen 54.87% in the past six months and is currently close to the lower end of its 52-week range of USD 15.07 to USD 81.98. The stock is currently trading below its 50 and 200 DMA levels, and its RSI Index is at 47.21. We have valued the stock using the EV/Sales-based relative valuation methodology and arrived at a target price of USD 21.08.

Considering the significant correction in the stock price, decent balance sheet, current valuation, and associated risks, we recommend a "Speculative Buy" rating on the stock at the current price of USD 16.68, down 1.24% as of December 10, 2021, 12:51 PM ET.

* The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

* All forecasted figures and industry information have been taken from REFINITIV.

*Depending upon the risk tolerance, investors may consider unwinding their positions in a respective stock once the estimated target price is reached. 

Agile Therapeutics, Inc.

AGRX Details

Agile Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: AGRX) is a women's healthcare firm whose mission is to meet women's unmet medical needs. Twirla (levonorgestrel and Ethinyl estradiol) transdermal system, the company's first product, is non-daily prescription contraception. Twirla is based on Skinfusion, a patented transdermal patch technology that allows medication delivery via the skin. As of December 10, 2021, its market capitalization stood at USD 81.70 million.

Latest News:

  • Board Appointments: AGRX announced on October 08, 2021, that Josephine Torrente had been appointed as a Class II director to the company's board of directors, starting October 07, 2021. Ms. Torrente will be a member of the Agile Science and Technology Committee and the Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee.
  • Public Offerings: AGRX announced the pricing of its underwritten public offering of 26.67 million shares of common stock and warrants to purchase 13.33 million shares of common stock on October 08, 2021, at a combined offer price to the public of USD 0.85 per common stock and one-half warrant to purchase one share of common stock. The warrants have an exercise price of USD 0.85 per share of common stock, are immediately exercisable, and have a five-year expiration period. The offering's total gross proceeds are projected to be around USD 22.67 million.

9MFY21 Results:

  • Recent Topline Generation: AGRX has recently started its commercial operations and generated a revenue of USD 2.59 million during 9MFY21 (ended September 30, 2021).
  • Recorded Net Losses: It witnessed an increase in net losses to USD 51.54 million during 9MFY21 vs. USD 34.23 million during 9MFY20.
  • Decent Balance Sheet: AGRX ended the quarter with a cash balance of USD 14.74 million and total debt of USD 16.43 million.

Key Risks:

  • Product Concentration: Aside from Twirla, AGRX currently has no other commercially accessible products. It has only made a small profit from product sales so far. Excessive reliance on a single product could undermine the company's operations and financial success.
  • Reliance on Third-Party Manufacturers: AGRX has no manufacturing capability and will continue to rely on Corium, its third-party manufacturer, to commercialize Twirla and develop its potential product candidates. It may not have or be able to secure enough Twirla or other product candidates to meet its required supply for commercialization or clinical trials, which might negatively impact its operations and cash flows.

Valuation Methodology: EV/Sales Multiple Based Relative Valuation

(Analysis by Kalkine Group)

* % Premium/(Discount) is based on our assessment of the Company's NTM trading multiple after considering its key growth drivers, economic moat, stock's historical trading multiples versus peer average/median, and investment risks.

AGRX Daily Technical Chart (Source: REFINITIV)

Stock Recommendation:

AGRX's stock price has declined 70.00% in the past nine months and is currently trading close to the lower-band of the 52-week range of USD 0.54 to USD 3.77. The stock is currently trading below its 50 and 200 DMA levels, and its RSI Index is 46.69. We have valued the stock using the EV/Sales-based relative valuation methodology and arrived at a target price of USD 0.78.

Considering the significant correction in the stock price in the past nine months, its revenue-generating capabilities, current valuation, and associated risks, we recommend a "Speculative Buy" rating on the stock at the closing price of USD 0.6599, down 1.95% as of December 10, 2021.

* The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

* All forecasted figures and industry information have been taken from REFINITIV.

* Depending upon the risk tolerance, investors may consider unwinding their positions in a respective stock once the estimated target price is reached.