Key Highlights

  • Merlin (NASDAQ:MRLN) was trading up 31.69% at USD 1.27 in pre-market on Friday, November 13, 2026, per pre-market market data. Calculated arithmetic implies a prior close of about USD 0.96.
  • Third-quarter Revenue was USD 3.5 million, up from USD 2.2 million in the second quarter and USD 1.9 million a year earlier, according to the company's release dated November 12, 2026.
  • Net income was USD 73.8 million, driven by a USD 103.6 million non-cash gain on Warrant liabilities, while the operating loss was USD 31.5 million and adjusted EBITDA was a loss of USD 24.1 million.
  • Cash and short-term investments were USD 161.6 million at September 30, 2026, down from USD 183.9 million at June 30, with no Debt reported.

Third-Quarter Results Show Growth but a Distorted Profit

Merlin (NASDAQ:MRLN) was trading up 31.69% at USD 1.27 in pre-market on Friday, November 13, 2026, a day after third-quarter results. Revenue of USD 3.5 million was above the roughly USD 2.0 million expected in a published preview, which was an expectation and not a company figure. Net Income of USD 73.8 million, or USD 0.37 per share, looks strong, but it came from a USD 103.6 million non-cash change in the Fair Value of warrant liabilities. The operating loss was USD 31.5 million, and nine-month net loss was USD 75.0 million. Adjusted EBITDA improved to a loss of USD 24.1 million from USD 27.8 million.

Autonomy Contracts: USD 8.9 Million Task Order and an Africa Command Award

On November 10, 2026, Merlin announced a USD 8.9 million task order for the next phase of the C-130J autonomy program with U.S. Special Operations Command, and on November 11 it said it was selected for the first phase of an Africa Command casualty evacuation challenge, worth USD 500 thousand. Both are small against the cash burn. The company cites a USD 100 million-plus contract ceiling on the C-130J program, but a ceiling is not booked backlog, and no Backlog figure was disclosed. The stock had jumped about 25.5% on June 5, 2026 after a design review milestone on the same program.

Cash Runway, 2027 Cost Cuts and the Share Price Slide

Management said it expects 2027 operating expenses to be meaningfully below the 2026 level, with a stated aim of funding the plan into 2029 without raising capital. Cash fell by about USD 22.3 million in the quarter, calculated from the two published balances. A published preview said the shares had fallen about 77% over three months and traded near 96 cents in early November, so the pre-market gain follows a deep decline. No numeric guidance was given. The main risks are execution on contracts, continued losses and a share price near USD 1.

Where Things Stand

Probably both, with the warrant gain adding noise. The likely catalysts for the 31.69% pre-market move are third-quarter revenue of USD 3.5 million, a USD 8.9 million task order and a lower-cost plan for 2027, and Merlin (NASDAQ:MRLN) also reported a USD 73.8 million profit that came from a non-cash warrant gain. Operations still lost USD 31.5 million. Next markers are conversion of the C-130J ceiling into funded orders, the 2027 expense reduction and quarterly cash burn against the USD 161.6 million balance. The prior close was not confirmed.