Key Highlights

● Nebius rose 15.44% after CoreWeave's Blowout quarterly report.

● Nebius reports third-quarter results before the market opens on Thursday, Nov. 12.

● Options markets expected a move of about 20% after the report.

● The stock had fallen about 53% from its June record before the rebound.

Why did Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS) become one of Wednesday's most actively traded stocks? Two reasons arrived at once: a blowout report from its closest rival and its own Earnings due the next morning. Nebius shares rose 15.44% during the session.

The trigger was CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV). Late on Tuesday, the AI cloud provider reported third-quarter Revenue of $3.66 billion, up 168% from a year earlier, raised its full-year guidance and disclosed a Backlog of roughly $133 billion. CEO Michael Intrator called it "a breakout quarter." CoreWeave shares jumped about 25% on Wednesday, and investors bid up the rest of the so-called neocloud group, the specialist providers that rent out Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA)-powered computing capacity. Nebius is widely seen as CoreWeave's closest listed peer, so it tends to move with the sector.

Timing amplified the move. Nebius was scheduled to report third-quarter results before the market opened on Thursday, Nov. 12, with a conference call at 8 a.m. ET. Investors were positioning ahead of a report that Options markets expected to move the stock by about 20%. Recent post-earnings reactions have been large in both directions, ranging from a 14% drop to a 32% gain.

From Amsterdam to AI cloud

Nebius is based in Amsterdam and builds and operates data centers filled with Nvidia GPUs, which it rents to AI developers and large technology companies. It also sells managed inference through a service called Token Factory. The company joined the Nasdaq-100 on June 22, 2026, as part of a quarterly reshuffle that also added CoreWeave.

Its customer list now includes two of the largest AI spenders. Nebius has a Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) contract worth about $17.4 billion, which could rise to about $19.4 billion if Microsoft buys more services. It also signed a five-year, $12 billion dedicated compute deal with Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META), with delivery expected to begin in early 2027. Meta can buy up to $15 billion more in residual capacity. Nvidia invested $2 billion in Nebius in March.

A volatile run into earnings

Wednesday's jump came after a painful slide. Nebius reached a record $286.69 on June 18, and by Tuesday it had fallen about 53%, erasing roughly $41.5 billion of market value. The stock hit an intraday low of $113.30 on Nov. 5. Part of the pressure came from reports that Microsoft might scale back its neocloud partnerships, and from news that rival IREN (NASDAQ:IREN) had delayed some capacity, which led Microsoft to spend less than planned last quarter. Hotter-than-expected U.S. Inflation data on Tuesday also weighed on growth stocks. Fed funds futures now fully price a December rate hike.

Results, guidance and expectations

In the second quarter, Nebius reported revenue of $582.3 million, up 454% from a year earlier, with an adjusted EBITDA Margin of about 41%. Annualized run-rate revenue stood at $3.0 billion in June. Management has guided to full-year 2026 revenue of $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion and an annualized run rate of $7 billion to $9 billion by year-end.

For the third quarter, consensus calls for revenue of about $907 million, more than six times the $146 million of a year earlier, and an adjusted loss in the range of $0.61 to $0.72 per share, depending on the data provider. If third-quarter revenue lands near $907 million, Nebius would need at least about $1.1 billion in the fourth quarter to reach the low end of its annual guidance.

Valuation

Because Nebius is still losing money, it has no P/E ratio, so investors usually value it on sales. The stock traded at about 5.4 times forward sales in early November, roughly half its five-year average of 10.6 times. That was before Wednesday's jump. Nebius's Market Value of about $42 billion compares with roughly $33 billion for CoreWeave, which also has no P/E because of losses. Analyst targets are well above the current price, with an average target of about $297 across 13 analysts, ranging from $144 to $410.

The bull case

Bulls argue that CoreWeave's report shows Demand for rented AI computing remains far ahead of supply. CoreWeave management said demand through 2028 is several times higher than the capacity expected to come online by then. Nebius has multiyear contracts with Microsoft and Meta, has raised prices on selected Nvidia GPU instances, by a reported 17% to 21% since Oct. 1, and posted a group adjusted EBITDA margin around 41% last quarter. Some contracts include customer prepayments covering 50% to 60% of the related Capital spending, which reduces the funding burden.

The bear case

The risks are large and familiar. Nebius plans $20 billion to $25 billion of capital spending this year, including about $5.7 billion in the second quarter alone, and funds it with debt, convertible notes and share sales. It sold about $5.75 billion of convertible notes in August and arranged $3.5 billion of senior secured financing from Citi in October. Customer concentration is high: three customers accounted for about 24%, 21% and 14% of second-quarter revenue. The Microsoft contract lets Microsoft terminate affected service batches if delivery runs late past a grace period. And a sharp rally before earnings raises the bar for the report.

Thursday's Earnings Test

Thursday's report is the immediate test. Five items matter most: whether run-rate revenue tracks toward the $7 billion to $9 billion year-end target, whether adjusted EBITDA margin holds near 40%, capital spending and funding plans, new large contracts or comments on the Microsoft relationship, and Token Factory's progress toward a $250 million year-end run rate from more than $100 million. Data Center commissioning, operating margins and financing costs also matter. Beyond Nebius's own numbers, Nvidia reports on Nov. 17, which will shape sentiment across AI infrastructure.

Wednesday's surge was driven mostly by a peer's results and pre-earnings positioning, not new Nebius news. Thursday's results will decide whether the rebound holds.