Key Highlights

● November soybean futures settled at 1,278.25 cents a bushel on October 2, 2026, down 5.75 cents, or 0.45%.

● China cut tariffs on US corn, wheat and soybean products on September 28 but left soybeans at an extra 10%.

● Old-crop soybean stocks of 315 million bushels on September 1 were down 3% from a year earlier.

● Bunge raised its 2026 adjusted earnings outlook to $9.25 to $9.75 a share, crediting soybean and softseed processing.

November soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade settled at 1,278.25 cents a bushel ($12.7825) on Friday, October 2, 2026, down 5.75 cents, or 0.45%, from Thursday’s 1,284.00 cents. Bunge (NYSE:BG), a major oilseed processor and grain merchant, is the main US-listed name exposed as the market drifts lower after a USDA stocks report and as China keeps soybeans out of its tariff relief.

A Slow Drift Lower After the Stocks Report

The USDA’s quarterly stocks report put old-crop soybean stocks on September 1 down 3% from a year earlier, at 315 million bushels. That is a three-year low and slightly below the trade estimate of 324 million. On Wednesday, September 30, November soybeans fell 4.75 cents to $12.93 after the report, and two further sessions of losses followed. The pattern points to a market drifting lower and not reacting to a single shock.

Soybeans did not fall alone. Corn also lost ground on Friday, with market commentary citing a firmer US dollar that makes American commodities dearer for overseas buyers, and a continuing debate over yields for both crops. A single session’s move rarely has one driver, and these explanations are offered by market participants. Because a contract is 5,000 bushels, each cent of movement changes its value by $50.

Beijing’s Selective Tariff Cuts and State Buying

Trade policy remains the largest swing factor for US beans. China announced on September 28 cuts to tariffs on a range of US farm goods, including corn, wheat, soybean oil and soybean meal, after a leaders’ summit. Soybeans were left off the list and keep an additional 10% tariff. The Chicago soybean contract fell 1.38% on the announcement, and traders warn that current tariffs make crushing unprofitable for private Chinese processors.

State buyers Sinograin and COFCO have bought more than 12 million tonnes of US soybeans, roughly half of the 25 million tonnes a year that Washington says Beijing committed to buy through 2028. Archer-Daniels-Midland (NYSE:ADM) said on its second-quarter call that management expects China to keep buying North American soybeans and to progress toward the 25 million tonne commitment for 2026. The split matters: state purchases support exports, while commercial crushers respond to margins, and the excluded tariff line leaves private demand uncertain.

Processors Live on Crush Margins, Not Flat Price

Soybeans are processed into meal and oil, and the oil side has become a policy story. December soybean meal settled at $347.50 a short ton, down $5.80, while December soybean oil closed at 68.62 cents a pound, up 1.24 cents. Oil firmed while meal fell, the pattern a biofuel-led crush would produce, though no reason was given for the split.

Archer-Daniels-Midland said crushing operating profit rose by about $330 million from the previous quarter to $363 million in the second quarter, citing strong domestic biofuel demand and elevated global energy prices. It raised its 2026 adjusted earnings guidance to $5.15 to $5.60 a share. Bunge reported second-quarter adjusted earnings of $2.00 a share on July 29 and raised its full-year outlook to $9.25 to $9.75, crediting soybean and softseed processing and refining. It has also completed the Viterra transaction, which broadens its origination footprint, though integration adds risk. Processors often hedge, so falling futures affect them with a lag and vary by quarter.

GrainCorp of Australia handles mainly wheat, barley and canola, not US-style soybeans, so it is an indirect read. In May it reported that oversupply compressed margins in a challenging global grain market.

What Lifts or Weighs on Beans Into Mid-October

Support could come if China broadens its tariff cuts to cover soybeans, if commercial crushers step up buying, if yield estimates fall as harvest results arrive, or if firm biofuel policy keeps crush margins healthy. Pressure could build from a rising dollar, better-than-expected yields, slow Chinese commercial buying and weaker meal values.

USDA’s supply and demand estimates arrive on October 9, 2026 at noon Eastern, the next major test for crop and stocks numbers. Export sales are normally published on Thursdays at 8:30 am Eastern and crop progress on Mondays at 4:00 pm Eastern through late November. Traders will look for changes to yield, production and ending-stock estimates for soybeans, plus export projections after the tariff announcement.