Key Highlights

  • Corn rose 1.20% to $4.645 per bushel, up 21.28% over the past year, as the USDA raised its 2025/26 export forecast by 75 million bushels to a record 3.4 billion
  • The USDA also lifted its 2026/27 export outlook by 75 million bushels to 3.275 billion, helping drive projected ending stocks down to 1.653 billion bushels from 1.79 billion previously
  • The USDA cut its 2026 corn Yield estimate to 180.7 bushels per acre from 183, below market expectations of 182.4, reflecting extreme heat and dryness across parts of the Midwest
  • Higher planted acreage pushed projected production up to 16.013 billion bushels, reinforcing expectations for the second-largest crop on record

Corn Climbs 1.20% on Record Export Demand

Corn rose 1.20% to $4.645 per bushel as strong Demand and tighter Supply forecasts supported prices. The USDA raised its 2025/26 US corn export forecast by 75 million bushels to a record 3.4 billion, citing robust demand from Mexico and other major importers. The scale of that upward revision points to export demand running well ahead of earlier expectations, providing a substantial layer of support beneath the market even before accounting for the parallel supply-side developments.

The agency also lifted its 2026/27 export outlook by 75 million bushels to 3.275 billion, helping drive projected ending stocks down to 1.653 billion bushels from 1.79 billion previously. That reduction in projected ending stocks — spanning both the current and coming Marketing years — reflects a tightening Balance Sheet even as overall production estimates have moved higher, a dynamic similar to the one seen in soybeans this week.

Yield Estimate Cut on Midwest Heat and Dryness

Meanwhile, the USDA cut its 2026 corn yield estimate to 180.7 bushels per acre from 183, below market expectations of 182.4, reflecting the impact of extreme heat and dryness across parts of the Midwest. The larger-than-expected yield downgrade suggests that recent growing-season stress has proven more damaging than analysts had anticipated heading into the report, adding an additional supportive element to prices alongside the record export forecasts.

However, higher planted acreage pushed projected production up to 16.013 billion bushels, reinforcing expectations for the second-largest crop on record. As with soybeans, the corn market is currently balancing a lower per-acre yield against a larger overall planted footprint, with the net effect still pointing toward a historically large harvest even after the yield cut.

Wetter Forecasts Temper Further Buying Interest

Looking ahead, forecasts for wetter weather have limited buying interest as some flooding in parts of the Corn Belt raised concerns over crop conditions. That shift toward wetter conditions marks a notable change from the heat and dryness that had driven the recent yield downgrade, introducing a new source of uncertainty around late-season crop development that traders are now weighing alongside the already-tightened export and stocks picture.