Key Highlights

● Cotton fell 0.68% to 77.97 US cents a pound in Friday's session.

● US harvest reached 52% by 25 October, ahead of the 45% average.

● China's September cotton imports fell 42.6% from a year earlier.

● India is expected to keep duty-free cotton imports open through December.

Cotton futures fell 0.68% to 77.97 US cents a pound in Friday's session on 30 October, sliding toward a three-month low as the US harvest moves faster than normal and Chinese Demand weakens. The price is still 18.98% above a year ago, so the market is soft rather than broken.

The ICE Cotton No. 2 contract (symbol CT, 50,000 pounds) is down 0.53 cents on the day and 2.77% on the week, but up 0.28% on the month and 21.33% since the start of the year. The price has slipped below 80 cents.

Supply Arrives Early While Buyers Hold Back

The main tension is simple. The harvest is bringing Supply to market sooner than usual, just as several important buyers hold back. On the other side, a weaker crop and Indian demand support the market. Each week's data shifts the balance a little.

A Harvest Ahead of Schedule

USDA crop progress data for the week ending 25 October showed 52% of the US crop harvested, up from 41% a week earlier and ahead of the five-year average of 45%. Some 89% of bolls were open, against a 2021 to 2025 average of 92%.

Peak harvest normally pressures prices as fresh supply reaches the market, and this year the pressure arrives early. Crop quality is weaker, which would normally support prices: USDA rated 33% of the crop good or excellent, down from 35% the previous week, with 13% very poor and 24% poor. Poor conditions can mean lower yields, but a quick harvest means the available bales reach buyers sooner.

Brazil Competes and China Steps Back

Export competition is rising. Brazil, the world's leading cotton exporter, is expected to ship around 3.4 million tonnes according to the Brazilian cotton exporters' association, compared with the USDA's forecast of 2.69 million tonnes for US exports. Brazil is therefore expected to ship more cotton than the United States this season.

China's behaviour matters more. The country's cotton imports fell 42.6% year on year in September, and progress in US-China trade talks has yet to deliver clear Tariff relief, which has led Chinese buyers to scale back foreign purchases. China is a large buyer, so lower purchases weigh heavily on global prices.

India Offers Some Support

India is the offset. It is expected to extend duty-free cotton imports through December because of tight domestic supplies. Duty-free access encourages Indian mills to buy abroad, which adds to demand for international cotton at a time when Chinese buying is soft.

Why the Price Is Still Higher Than a Year Ago

Despite the slide, cotton is 18.98% higher than a year ago and 21.33% higher this year. Harvest pace and Chinese demand are the two readings that will decide whether the price drifts further toward its three-month low or finds a base.

Cotton Watch: Crop Progress, Export Sales and Chinese Imports

USDA's weekly crop progress and export sales reports will show whether the harvest keeps running ahead of average and whether US exports are keeping up with Brazil. The monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates will update the production, Yield and export forecasts that underpin the balance sheet. Chinese customs data and Indian policy announcements on Import duties are the other two signals.

Prices could find support if yields disappoint, if Chinese buying revives, if Indian import demand holds or if the harvest slows. They could weaken if the harvest stays fast, if Brazilian exports stay strong, if Chinese imports keep falling or if consumer demand for apparel stays cautious.