Key Highlights

● ICE New York cocoa was indicated near $5,158 per tonne on October 2, 2026, down $209, or 3.89%.

● ICE-certified cocoa stocks reached a 2.25-year high of 3.48 million bags, evidence of ample supply after a large 2025/26 surplus.

● Ghana’s cocoa board reported harvests up 25.6% for 2025/26, while forecasts see Ivory Coast output falling roughly 20% next season.

● Hershey reported second-quarter net sales of $2.78 billion and adjusted earnings of $1.90 a share, and raised its annual outlook.

ICE Futures US cocoa (New York, quoted in US dollars per tonne) was indicated at about $5,158 per tonne on Friday, October 2, 2026, down $209, or 3.89%, with a session range of $5,053.50 to $5,335.50 in delayed trading. Prices had drifted toward $5,100 on October 1, the lowest since late July. The Hershey Company (NYSE:HSY), the US chocolate maker, is the main US-listed equity exposed to cocoa costs.

A Sharp Retreat From the Highs

New York cocoa has fallen sharply from its highs. The 52-week range runs from $2,846 to $6,821 per tonne, so the current price sits in the upper half of that band, and the quote implies a drop from about $5,367 to $5,158. London cocoa, priced in pounds sterling per tonne, is the other benchmark, and the two markets differ in currency, contract month and local supply factors.

Ample Supply Outweighs Weather Worries

The latest fall is attributed to ample supply following a large global surplus in 2025/26 and rising inventories. ICE-certified cocoa stocks reached a 2.25-year high of 3.48 million bags, or 3,452,949 bags on another count. Ghana’s cocoa board reported harvests up 25.6% for 2025/26, and a stronger US dollar, at a two-month high, added pressure. Systematic liquidation may have amplified the decline.

On the other side, dry conditions in Ivory Coast mean forecasts suggest output could fall roughly 20% to 1.75 million tonnes next season, and below-average cherelle formation is an early sign of a weaker main harvest. These are forecasts and early assessments, not outcomes.

Hershey, Mondelez and Cocoa Costs

Cocoa is a cost for chocolate makers, not a revenue line, so lower prices tend to help them with a lag. Hershey reported second-quarter 2026 net sales of $2.78 billion on July 30, with adjusted earnings per share of $1.90 and a raised annual outlook. Its chief executive referred to continued volatility in commodity markets, particularly cocoa. Hershey is a major buyer of cocoa and uses pricing and productivity to manage it, and management cited cost visibility and operating flexibility.

Mondelez International (NASDAQ:MDLZ), the owner of Cadbury and Milka, reported second-quarter revenue of $9.355 billion on July 28. Its results release lists volatility of cocoa and other commodity input costs as a risk factor.

What Could Move Cocoa Next

If the Ivory Coast main crop disappoints, as early flowering indicators suggest it could, the current surplus narrative could weaken, and prices have been very volatile, with a 52-week range of more than $3,900 per tonne. If inventories keep rising and Ghana’s larger harvest persists, downward pressure may continue. A stronger dollar can add pressure on dollar-priced soft commodities, while a weaker dollar could do the reverse.

For confectioners, lower cocoa prices could help gross margins, but this depends on hedges already in place, retail pricing and whether consumers return after price rises.

The items to watch are ICE-certified stocks, weather in Ivory Coast through the rest of the rainy season, the flow of beans arriving at ports, Ghana and Ivory Coast farmgate price announcements and early estimates for the 2026/27 main crop. Hershey and Mondelez normally report third-quarter results around late October, and the spread between London and New York can show whether currency moves or regional supply is driving each market.