Key Highlights

  • Cantor Fitzgerald's Andres Sheppard, who rates Tesla Overweight with a $485 price target, projects third-quarter deliveries of 421,758 vehicles.
  • The Nasdaq Composite lost 248.34 points to 26,820.38, and the 10-year Treasury Yield hit its highest level since 2007.
  • Oil also climbed on Monday after President Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Tuesday's consumer confidence reading will give a read on households' appetite for big purchases, and Wednesday brings PCE inflation.

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares slid on Monday as two Wall Street firms laid out different views ahead of third-quarter deliveries, with one delivery estimate sitting well below consensus.

A tense countdown

Tesla's third-quarter delivery numbers are due in early October, and Wall Street is not in full agreement about what they will show. On Monday, September 28, the electric-vehicle maker's shares fell, sliding to $359.80, as analysts adjusted their views heading into the report.

The stock's drop came on a broad down day. The Nasdaq Composite lost 248.34 points to 26,820.38, and the 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2007, pressuring Growth Stocks across the board.

Cantor's cautious optimism

Cantor Fitzgerald's Andres Sheppard, who rates Tesla Overweight with a $485 price target, projects third-quarter deliveries of 421,758 vehicles. That compares with a consensus estimate of 448,679, a gap of roughly 27,000 vehicles.

Despite forecasting a shortfall against consensus, Cantor described its outlook as "cautiously optimistic." In other words, the firm still likes the stock's longer-term story even while expecting the quarter's deliveries to land below what many others anticipate.

JPMorgan trims its target

JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM)'s Rajat Gupta also moved ahead of the report, cutting his price target to $415 from $445 while keeping a Neutral rating. The cut signals a more guarded view on the near-term setup, though it still leaves his target above where the stock closed on Monday.

The contrast between the two firms captures the debate around Tesla. Some analysts focus on near-term vehicle volumes, while others emphasize longer-term bets such as autonomous driving and energy storage. How investors weigh those stories often determines how the stock reacts to delivery numbers.

Why deliveries matter

Tesla's quarterly delivery report is one of the most closely watched data points in the auto sector. It gives an early read on Revenue before the company reports full Earnings later in the month. A number well below consensus can hit the stock hard, while a beat can spark a rally.

The macro backdrop adds another layer. Higher interest rates make car loans more expensive, which can weigh on Demand for big-ticket purchases. The Federal Reserve raised rates at its September meeting for the first time in three years, and futures price a strong majority chance of another hike in October. Oil also climbed on Monday after President Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which pushes up gasoline costs for drivers and keeps Inflation worries alive.

A wider market in retreat

Tesla was one of several big tech names to fall on Monday. Meta (NASDAQ:META) slid after launching an enterprise AI platform, Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) eased, and chip stocks such as Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) and Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) dropped sharply after reports that OpenAI paused Training of some frontier models. Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) was a rare gainer after announcing a $150 billion increase to its buyback.

Deliveries against consensus decide the read

When Tesla releases its figures, watch total deliveries against both the 448,679 consensus and Cantor's 421,758 estimate. Production numbers and energy storage deployments will also be scrutinized.

Beyond Tesla, this week's macro calendar could move the stock. Tuesday's consumer confidence reading will offer a read on households' appetite for big purchases, Wednesday brings PCE inflation, and Friday's jobs report will shape rate expectations. CarMax (NYSE:KMX)'s results on Tuesday will also shed light on the broader car market.