Key Highlights

  • ICE Futures US cocoa was quoted at US$5,408 per metric ton on September 29, 2026, down US$181, or 3.24%.
  • Market data shows cocoa down about 20% over the past month and about 20% over twelve months.
  • Global cocoa inventories are at a two-year high of 3.43 million bags, while dry Ivory Coast weather raises crop concern.
  • Projections cited in market data see Ivory Coast output falling about 20% to 1.75 million metric tons.

The benchmark used here is ICE Futures US cocoa, quoted in US dollars per metric ton. Market data showed US$5,408 per metric ton on September 29, 2026, down US$181 or 3.24% on the day. The same data shows a fall of about 20% over the past month and about 20% over twelve months.

There are two separate cocoa futures markets. New York cocoa is priced in dollars per metric ton on ICE Futures US. London cocoa trades on ICE Futures Europe and is priced in pounds sterling per metric ton. Because London prices are in sterling, they move with the pound as well as with cocoa itself, so the two contracts can diverge even when the underlying market is the same. Figures refer to New York unless stated. The Hershey Company (NYSE:HSY) and Mondelez International (NASDAQ:MDLZ) are large chocolate makers that buy the crop.

Supply worries against ample stocks

Market data attributes the latest weakness to the market weighing two opposing forces. Near-term supply looks comfortable: it says global inventories are at a two-year high of 3.43 million bags. That reading matches the description of ICE-monitored stocks as elevated in trade coverage this month.

Against that, the medium-term crop outlook is uncertain. Dry conditions in Ivory Coast, the largest grower, have raised concern about the 2026-27 crop, and early surveys are said to show below-average cherelle formation. Cherelles are the young pods that develop into harvestable cocoa, so weak formation can point to smaller later harvests.

Market data also cites expectations that Ivory Coast output could fall about 20% to 1.75 million metric tons and Ghana output about 13% to 650,000 metric tons. These are projections rather than official figures.

Reading the size of the move

A fall of more than 3% in one session is large for most commodities, but cocoa has been unusually volatile over the past two years. The twelve-month change of about minus 20% means prices are well below levels seen a year ago, yet a fall of a fifth in one month suggests the market has been repricing quickly as stocks rebuilt.

The direction of supply data matters more than a single day's price. A daily move of this size can reflect positioning and thin liquidity as much as new information.

Weather, El Niño and the harmattan

Market data says the market is monitoring El Niño development, which could strengthen the dry harmattan winds that typically begin in November. The main crop is harvested from roughly October onwards, so weather during the coming weeks bears directly on pod quality and size.

This is a possible risk, not an established outcome. Seasonal forecasts change, and rainfall in the growing areas can improve. Traders are pricing probabilities, which helps explain why prices can fall sharply on a single day even when crop concerns persist.

Drivers behind the price move

A separate trade report covering mid-September mentioned Ghanaian farmgate price proposals and Ivory Coast port arrivals running ahead of last year.

Currency is a secondary factor. A weaker pound raises the sterling price of London cocoa without changing the dollar price in New York.

Listed companies and their exposure

Cocoa is mainly a cost input for chocolate makers. Descriptions below come from public business profiles.

The Hershey Company is a major chocolate and confectionery producer and therefore a large cocoa consumer. Falling cocoa costs can ease pressure on margins, although hedging programs mean changes reach results with a delay.

Mondelez International owns chocolate brands including Cadbury and Milka and buys cocoa globally. Its business is diversified across cookies and other snacks, which dilutes single-commodity exposure, and it sells in many currencies.

Tootsie Roll Industries (NYSE:TR) is a smaller US confectioner with cocoa and sugar among its inputs.

These are consumers, not producers. Lower cocoa prices are generally a benefit to them, but companies also adjust retail prices and promotions, so the effect on profit is not automatic. Barry Callebaut, a large cocoa processor, is listed in Switzerland.

What could strengthen or weaken the outlook

Prices could firm if dry weather damages the main crop, if pod counts disappoint, or if West African farmgate policies discourage selling. Surprisingly weak arrivals at ports would also support them.

Prices could weaken if rains arrive and improve crop prospects, if arrivals stay strong, or if inventories keep building. Demand is another swing factor: high prices in recent years pushed some manufacturers to reformulate products, and a recovery in chocolate demand is not yet confirmed.

Port Arrivals, Farmgate Prices and the March Roll for Cocoa

Watch weekly Ivory Coast port arrivals, ICE certified stock reports, and any announcement of the 2026-27 farmgate prices in Ivory Coast and Ghana, which are normally set around the start of the main crop season. The European, North American and Asian quarterly cocoa grind figures are usually released in mid-October.

Also note contract rolls: December 2026 is the active New York month, and continuous quotes shift to March when December approaches expiry.