Key Highlights

  • Take-Two shares fell 6.6% intraday on Aug. 31, 2026, after further Grand Theft Auto VI footage leaked.
  • The company reiterated fiscal 2027 net bookings guidance of $8.0 billion to $8.2 billion on Aug. 7 and has not changed it since.
  • Q1 net bookings of about $1.39 billion beat the company's $1.32 billion to $1.37 billion guidance range.
  • NBA 2K27 launched Sept. 4, and Grand Theft Auto V has sold more than 200 million units since 2013, underscoring the scale of the Franchise investors are watching.

Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ:TTWO) has kept its financial targets unchanged even as a wave of leaked Grand Theft Auto VI gameplay footage rattled its shares. The publisher's most recent outlook, reiterated with first-quarter results on Aug. 7, 2026, calls for fiscal 2027 net bookings of $8.0 billion to $8.2 billion, and Grand Theft Auto VI remains scheduled for release on Nov. 19, 2026. The company has not announced any change to either since the leaks began.

The leaks hit the stock anyway. On Aug. 31, Take-Two shares were down 6.6% as of 1:10 p.m. Eastern time, linked to substantial amounts of leaked footage and information about the game. The broader market was also weaker that day, with the S&P 500 down 0.5%, and the stock was down about 14% year to date.

The logic behind holding the guidance is straightforward: the leaks do not alter the launch date, the platforms or the product itself. The company's rationale, as its chief financial officer put it in August, rests on positive Business trends and the November release, and the question for investors is whether unauthorized footage changes consumer Demand for the most anticipated game in the company's history.

Inside the GTA VI Leak Saga

Leaked gameplay clips first surfaced publicly around Aug. 18, and by Aug. 25 roughly 17 minutes of footage exploring the game's Vice City setting had circulated online under the persona "Cyberleek." Some files reportedly circulated privately on Discord before appearing publicly.

Rockstar Games, Take-Two's flagship label, responded on Aug. 26, calling the leaks "heartbreaking." Take-Two filed takedown requests under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act and obtained court-ordered subpoenas directed at Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Discord to help identify those responsible.

The company then pressed ahead with its own marketing. Rockstar premiered "Grand Theft Auto VI: An Extended Look" on Netflix on the evening of Aug. 27, and Take-Two shares rose about 2.3% in premarket trading the next morning, with the Nov. 19 date reaffirmed during the showcase. The Aug. 31 decline came as leaked material continued to circulate after that presentation.

First-Quarter Numbers Beat the Company's Own Range

Take-Two reported fiscal first-quarter results, for the three months ended June 30, on Aug. 7. GAAP net Revenue rose 2% to $1.533 billion, while net bookings, the company's preferred operating measure, fell 3% to about $1.39 billion. That was above the company's guidance range of $1.32 billion to $1.37 billion. Recurrent consumer spending, which captures in-game purchases and other ongoing spending, increased 1%. The GAAP net loss widened to $34.1 million, or 18 cents per share, from $11.9 million, or 7 cents per share, a year earlier.

Chief Executive Strauss Zelnick called the quarter "excellent" and credited the company's portfolio and execution. Titles driving results included NBA 2K, the Grand Theft Auto series, Red Dead Redemption, Toon Blast, Match Factory! and Empires & Puzzles.

For the full fiscal year ending March 31, 2027, Take-Two guided to:

  • Net bookings of $8.0 billion to $8.2 billion.
  • GAAP net revenue of $7.9 billion to $8.1 billion.
  • GAAP Net Income of $104 million to $143 million.
  • Operating cash flow of more than $1 billion.

For the second quarter ending Sept. 30, it forecast net bookings of $1.62 billion to $1.67 billion and a GAAP net loss of 75 cents to 84 cents per share. On the earnings call, Chief Financial Officer Lainie Goldstein said the company was reiterating its fiscal 2027 net bookings outlook, citing positive trends and excitement around the November release.

A Portfolio Built Around One Giant Launch

Take-Two's business spans console and PC games through Rockstar Games and 2K, and mobile titles through Zynga. The mobile portfolio and annual sports franchises such as NBA 2K, whose NBA 2K27 edition launched on Sept. 4, provide a recurring base. But the fiscal 2027 bookings guidance, far above what four quarters at the first-quarter pace would produce, depends heavily on Grand Theft Auto VI landing in the second half of the year.

Grand Theft Auto V has sold more than 200 million units since 2013, and that track record is why investors treat the sequel as a generational event for the company. Its pipeline also lists PGA Tour 2K27, WWE 2K27, Judas and a new BioShock, without firm release dates.

How Rivals and the Market Frame the Launch

Take-Two competes with Electronic Arts (NASDAQ:EA), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT)'s gaming division, Sony (NYSE:SONY)'s PlayStation Studios, Ubisoft and Nintendo for consumer spending and attention. A title of Grand Theft Auto VI's scale tends to crowd other big releases out of its launch window, and the game's performance will also be closely watched by Sony and Microsoft, whose console sales could benefit.

On pricing, Zelnick told analysts the company aims to deliver more value than it charges, a comment watched closely amid industry debate over higher prices for major games.

Weighing the Risks Behind the Guidance

The immediate risk from the leaks is reputational and marketing-related rather than financial: footage in circulation could reduce the impact of Rockstar's planned reveals. There is little evidence yet that leaks materially dent sales of major releases, and Grand Theft Auto VI survived a large leak in 2022, but that remains an open question.

Larger risks sit elsewhere. Any further delay to Grand Theft Auto VI, which has already moved from its original 2025 window, would jeopardize the fiscal 2027 targets. The company is also exposed to consumer spending conditions, execution on a complex global launch, and the high expectations embedded in its valuation. On the positive side, first-quarter bookings came in above guidance and management has pointed to strong engagement across its franchises.

The November Launch as the Real Test for Guidance

The Nov. 19, 2026, launch of Grand Theft Auto VI on PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S is the dominant catalyst. Before then, Take-Two's fiscal second-quarter results, which the company has typically reported in early November, will show whether it still backs the $8.0 billion to $8.2 billion bookings range.

Investors will also watch for pre-order commentary, although Zelnick said in August that the company "genuinely" does not know how pre-orders translate into final sales, and for any further developments in the leak investigation.