Key Highlights

● Orange juice fell 4.95% to 137.11 US cents a pound in Thursday's session.

● Florida's 2026/27 orange forecast is 10.0 million boxes, down 23% from last year.

● US concentrate stocks were 171% of year-earlier levels at the end of August.

● Alico's citrus revenue was $1.1 million in the June quarter, against $7.8 million.

Orange juice futures fell 4.95% to 137.11 US cents a pound in Thursday's session on 29 October, the sharpest fall on the agricultural board, even though crops in both Florida and Brazil are forecast to be smaller. The slide matters to citrus landowners such as Alico (NASDAQ:ALCO), although the company is moving away from growing oranges.

The benchmark is ICE Futures US frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ-A), quoted in US cents per pound. Juice is now down 3.82% on the week and 9.62% on the month, 33.18% since the start of the year and 20.66% from a year ago.

Smaller Crops, Weaker Prices

Orange juice is a market where supply and demand are pulling apart. Growers in the two main producing regions are expecting less fruit, which would normally lift prices. Inventories of concentrate are heavy and demand for juice is soft, which has pushed prices lower anyway.

Supply Is Shrinking in Florida and Brazil

The USDA's 9 October forecast put Florida's all-orange production at 10.0 million boxes, down 23% from 12.95 million boxes a year earlier. The forecast covers all oranges and does not show how much of the crop goes to juice.

In Brazil, the world's largest exporter, the 2026/27 orange harvest is estimated at 263.2 million boxes, a fall of 10.2% on the year. Citrus greening, a disease that cuts yields and causes premature fruit drop, and high on-farm costs are the main reasons given.

Why Stocks and Demand Matter More

If supply is smaller, why is the price low? The answer lies in stocks and consumption. USDA cold-storage data released on 25 September showed US frozen concentrated juice stocks of 501,044 thousand pounds on 31 August, 171% of the level a year earlier.

Demand has also weakened. Market commentary says European buyers of Brazilian juice have been put off by high retail prices and are working through large bottler stocks. European concentrate was priced at about US$2,200 a tonne at the end of September, down 7% in a month, and the same commentary says consumers are shifting away from juice over price and sugar concerns.

What It Means for Alico

Alico was a significant Florida citrus grower, but it has decided to wind down its citrus operations. For the quarter ended 30 June 2026 it reported citrus revenue of US$1.1 million, compared with US$7.8 million a year earlier, within total revenue of US$9.0 million. Land management and property sales now drive its results.

That leaves Alico with limited direct exposure to FCOJ prices today, so a move in the futures price does not carry straight through to the company. For beverage makers that use orange juice as an input, lower prices ease costs, though the benefit depends on contract terms and on how much of their sales is juice.

Orange Juice Watch: Cold Storage, Crop Forecasts and the January Roll

The next USDA cold-storage report and the next USDA citrus forecast will show whether the stock overhang is clearing and whether Florida's crop estimate moves again. In Brazil, bottler contract negotiations for the fourth quarter will indicate whether volumes are clearing inventories.

Prices could find support from further crop downgrades, weather damage during Brazil's flowering and fruit-set period, a drawdown of stocks or a recovery in retail volumes. They could stay under pressure if inventories remain high, if demand stays subdued or if crops recover.

The calendar also matters. The November contract has first notice on 2 November and its last trading day is 9 November, so data providers will move to January 2027 around then. A continuous price series can show an apparent jump across the roll that has nothing to do with market news.