Key Highlights

● Soybeans fell 0.32% to 1,220.58 US cents a bushel in Thursday's session.

● USDA raised its 2026/27 US crop forecast to a record 4.56 billion bushels.

● The US soybean harvest was 79% complete as of 25 October.

● Weekly US soybean export inspections rose to 2.48 million tonnes.

CBOT soybeans fell 0.32% to 1,220.58 US cents a bushel in Thursday's session on 29 October, edging toward a nine-week low as the US harvest moved quickly and crop forecasts grew. The slide matters to processors such as ADM (NYSE:ADM), which crush the beans and handle the trade with China.

Soybeans are down 2.76% on the week and 5.77% on the month, but the market is still 18.24% higher on the year and 11.66% above a year ago. The weakness therefore follows a strong stretch, not a collapse.

A Big Crop Against Brisk Shipments

Two forces are pulling in different directions. The size of the US crop and the speed of the harvest are adding supply, while export demand is strong and Chinese buying has returned. So far supply has the upper hand.

A Record Crop and a Fast Harvest

The USDA's October supply and demand report raised its 2026/27 US soybean forecast by 1% to a record 4.56 billion bushels, 7% above the previous year. It also lifted the projected yield by 0.6 bushels to a record 53.1 bushels per acre.

The harvest was 79% complete as of 25 October, slightly ahead of the 77% five-year average. Large US and South American crops are expected, which has pushed futures to their lowest since late August.

Exports and China

Demand is a partial offset. US export inspections rose to 2.48 million tonnes in the week ended 22 October, up from 2.07 million the week before and well above the 1.16 million tonnes recorded a year earlier. Net US export sales reached 2.84 million tonnes in the latest weekly figures, helped by Chinese buying.

ADM's chief executive said in early August that China had been buying about a million tonnes of North American soybeans a week, which he sees as progress toward the 25 million tonnes a year that the US administration said China agreed to buy through 2028. Details on the exact purchase amount remain unclear.

Brazil and the Real

South America is the next supply question. A study projects lower Brazilian output under a strong El Niño, which would support prices. Against that, the Brazilian currency weakened after President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's reelection, making Brazilian soybeans cheaper for overseas buyers relative to US supplies.

What It Means for Processors

Higher bean prices are not automatically good for processors, because crush margins, volumes and hedging matter more than the flat price. ADM reported second-quarter 2026 operating profit of US$1.45 billion, with crushing profit of US$363 million against US$33 million a year earlier, and raised full-year earnings per share guidance to US$5.15 to US$5.60. It plans to add capacity at four US crush sites.

Bunge Global (NYSE:BG) combines soybean processing, softseed and grain merchandising, and closed its Viterra acquisition on 2 July 2025. Its first-quarter 2026 net income attributable to shareholders was US$68 million, down from US$201 million, though the comparison is distorted by Viterra. The filing also shows US$2.18 billion of unrealised derivative gains and US$1.16 billion of margin deposits, which gives a sense of the scale of its commodity positions.

Soybean Watch: Crop Progress, Export Sales and Chinese Buying

The weekly USDA crop progress and export sales reports, the Brazilian real, Chinese purchase announcements and the next USDA supply and demand estimates are the guides. The next quarterly reports from ADM and Bunge will show how crush margins and trade policy are feeding through.

Prices could find support from continued Chinese purchasing, stronger US export sales, a smaller South American crop or higher vegetable oil prices if biofuel policy tightens. Pressure could come from a quick end to the US harvest, rising Brazilian planting, weaker Chinese buying or a stronger dollar that makes US supplies less competitive.