Key Highlights

  • December London white sugar settled at US$555.70 per tonne on October 7, down 0.14%.
  • Germany is estimated to cut beet sugar output by about 25% in 2026/27.
  • EU sugar output could fall close to 20% to roughly 13.4 million tonnes.
  • Funds held a record 70,766 net-long contracts in London white sugar in late August.

London White Sugar Settles at US$555.70 a Tonne

The December 2026 ICE London No. 5 white sugar contract settled at US$555.70 per tonne on October 7, 2026, down 0.80, or 0.14%, the latest dated settlement in the data. It traded between 538.30 and 567.70 that day. White sugar is a different market from raw sugar: the London contract is for 50 tonnes, quoted in US dollars per tonne, with delivery months in March, May, August, October and December, whereas New York No. 11 is quoted in US cents per pound. Raw sugar traded near 20.81 cents during today's session.

The Curve and Recent Moves

March 2027 was at 565.70 and May 2027 at US$568.80 per tonne, so later months were priced above December on that day. December was at 544.00 and March at 540.00 on August 21, so the shape of the curve has changed over the autumn. Earlier, October and December 2026 settled near 511 and US$510 on August 14, and the October contract rose 3.81% on September 1.

Europe's Beet Crop Is the Central Story

Estimates point to Germany cutting beet sugar output by about 25% in 2026/27, mainly because of reduced acreage, and EU sugar output could fall close to 20% to roughly 13.4 million tonnes, with ending stocks near 2.3 million tonnes. Hot, dry conditions in France shortened the processing campaign to an estimated 97 days against a six-year average of 122. S&P Global puts EU and UK output at 14.98 million tonnes, the lowest in 11 years, a different estimate to the EU observatory figure; both point the same way, but sources differ on the size of the decline.

Reported EU spot prices remain well below the futures price. Lithuanian granulated sugar was 0.52 euros per kilogram on September 30 and Polish white crystal 0.58 euros on September 21, which suggests physical European prices have not simply tracked London futures.

Other Factors Behind the Market

The International Sugar Organization projects a 200,000 tonne global deficit in 2026/27, and Brazilian Center-South sugar output fell 26.3% in June as mills favored ethanol. Funds also held a record net-long position in London white sugar of 70,766 contracts in late August, which can exaggerate moves in either direction. Brazil, India and Thailand matter too, because white sugar is refined from raw cane sugar in many places and a global shortfall can lift both markets.

Listed Companies and How They Are Exposed

Associated British Foods (LSE:ABF) is the clearest UK-listed link, through British Sugar and its African sugar businesses. Its July 1 trading update guided to an adjusted operating loss of £25 million to £60 million in sugar for fiscal 2026, citing lower European selling prices than a year earlier, gas costs it called significantly higher because of the Middle East conflict, and weather and currency issues in Africa. It said European sugar prices had not yet risen and expected a further deterioration in fiscal 2027. That update pre-dates October's futures levels, and higher London futures do not automatically improve margins when beet contracts, energy costs and onerous contracts are in play.

Rogers Sugar (TSX:RSI) refines cane and processes beet at Taber, Alberta, and hedges with Raw No. 11 futures, so its direct link is to raw rather than white sugar. Buyers include The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE:KO), whose second-quarter release cited higher input costs, and Coca-Cola Europacific Partners (NASDAQ:CCEP), whose half-year report says commodities are about 90% hedged for 2026.

Dates to Watch: Coca-Cola Results and the CCEP Trading Update

Coca-Cola reports on October 27 and Coca-Cola Europacific Partners on November 3. A bigger-than-expected European beet harvest, easier energy costs or weaker investor positioning could soften prices, while further crop damage elsewhere, higher energy costs that squeeze processors or renewed fund buying could support them.

In short, tighter European supply is the main story, but ABF's own statement that Europe was likely to stay in surplus because of high 2025 inventories is a reminder that lower output does not by itself guarantee tighter supply.