Key Highlights

  • CBOT soft red winter wheat was trading near US$6.95 a bushel on September 30, 2026, according to market data.
  • The CBOT December 2026 settlement was 688.75 cents on September 28, against Kansas City December at 701.75 cents.
  • Market data shows wheat down about 8% over the past month but up about 36% over the past year.
  • Wheat fell below US$7, its lowest since August 25, as market data cited renewed Black Sea shipment talks.

Wheat futures were trading near US$6.95 a bushel on Wednesday, September 30, 2026, according to market data, after falling below US$7 earlier in the month. The benchmark is CBOT soft red winter (SRW) wheat, ticker ZW. The main development is easing hopes over Black Sea grain shipments, set against a market that remains well above levels a year ago. Grain merchants Bunge (NYSE:BG) and Archer-Daniels-Midland (NYSE:ADM) are the listed names most tied to wheat flows.

Which wheat, and which price

Wheat is not one market. CBOT SRW is the benchmark used. Kansas City hard red winter (HRW) is a separate contract, and MATIF milling wheat in Paris is priced in euros per metric ton, so none of them can be swapped for another without adjusting for grade, currency and units.

The CBOT contract is quoted in US cents per bushel. A market report gave the CBOT December 2026 settlement at 688.75 cents on September 28, Kansas City December at 701.75 and Minneapolis March 2027 at 703.50.

Kansas City trades at a premium to Chicago in these settlements, by about 13 cents for December, which reflects differences in the classes of wheat rather than a mispricing. Hard red winter is milled for bread flour, while soft red winter is used more for cakes, cookies and crackers.

Discrepancies between price pages

Market data showed 695.07 on September 30, up 0.33%, though it labels the figure in dollars when the quote is in cents. Another page showed 688.60, down 17.40 from a stated previous close of 706.00. That previous close does not match the 688.75 December settlement above, so that change figure does not reconcile. Timing, contract month and continuous-series methods probably explain part of the gap. The latest price is approximate until the official settlement is published.

What is moving prices

Market data said wheat fell below US$7, its lowest since August 25 and more than 8% under a three-and-a-half-year high of US$7.67 reached on August 28. It linked the fall to diplomatic efforts to restore grain shipments from the Black Sea, including renewed talks involving India, Turkey, Egypt and others.

It also pointed to US-China discussions that include tariff cuts on agricultural goods, which could raise global supply prospects. The size of any effect is uncertain.

Supply risks have not disappeared. On August 18, a market report said weeks of attacks on shipping routes by Russia and Ukraine had reduced exports from the region. It also said Germany's 2026 winter wheat harvest was projected to fall 7% to 20.9 million metric tons after a dry spring and June heatwave.

The wider trend

Market data shows wheat down about 8% over the past month but up about 36% over the past year. Another page lists a 52-week range of 492.25 to 795.00 cents for its series, which is wider than the market data high of 767 cents, so the two use different contracts or measures. Both point to a market that has rallied hard and then pulled back.

Demand is still visible in tenders. In the August 18 report, Jordan's state buyer secured about 60,000 metric tons of wheat in a tender seeking up to 120,000 metric tons. One tender is not a trend, but it shows importers keep buying when prices dip.

Listed companies and their exposure

Wheat exposure is mostly through grain merchants, storage operators and input suppliers, and their earnings depend on volumes, spreads and hedging as much as on flat price.

Bunge is a global grain and oilseed merchant and processor. Merchants can benefit from volatility and shipping disruption if they hold flexible origination, but disruption also adds logistics risk.

Archer-Daniels-Midland is a large agricultural processor and merchant with milling and grain-handling activities. An industry magazine reported on August 4 that it raised 2026 adjusted earnings guidance to US$5.15 to US$5.60 a share. The stated drivers were mostly biofuel and crush margins, so wheat is a smaller part of that story.

GrainCorp is an Australian grain storage, handling and marketing company. Its earnings depend heavily on the size of the east-coast Australian winter crop and export flows.

Nutrien (NYSE:NTR) supplies fertilizer and crop inputs across North America, including to wheat growers. It published second-quarter 2026 results. Higher wheat prices can improve farm economics, which may support input spending, but that link is indirect.

Corteva (NYSE:CTVA) sells seed and crop protection. Its first-half update said a separation into two companies was on track for October 1, 2026. Its wheat exposure is smaller than its corn and soybean exposure.

What could strengthen or weaken the outlook

Prices could firm if Black Sea talks stall, if attacks on shipping resume, or if weather cuts crops in major exporters. Market data also highlighted that the market remains more than a third higher than a year ago, so buyers are still sensitive to supply news.

Prices could ease further if shipping corridors reopen, if trade talks add supply, or if a stronger dollar reduces the appeal of US wheat.

USDA Stocks, Black Sea Talks and the Three-Market Comparison for Wheat

Watch the USDA Grain Stocks report on September 30, which covers all grains, then weekly export sales and inspections, Black Sea diplomacy, and the next USDA supply and demand estimates. Also compare CBOT with Kansas City and MATIF before drawing conclusions about global wheat, because the three can move differently.