Commodities, Markets, and Tech: Gold Hits 1-Week High, S&P 500 Outlook, and Bitcoin Soars Amid Regulatory Optimism

Commodities Update

Gold surged above $2,620/oz, hitting a 1-week high as the dollar paused and Fed rate cut bets for December fell to 59%. Geopolitical tensions, including Biden approving Ukraine’s use of U.S. long-range arms and Russia updating its nuclear doctrine, boosted safe-haven demand. Meanwhile, Brent crude dipped to $72.7/bbl as Norway’s Sverdrup field resumed output, though Chevron’s Tengiz repairs and weak Chinese demand kept markets cautious.

Macro Update

US 10-year Treasury yield dips to 4.4% as markets reassess Fed rate cut bets for December and beyond. Focus shifts to housing, manufacturing, and jobless claims data, alongside Fed commentary this week. Rising yields reflect optimism about US economic strength under Trump’s upcoming presidency, with tariff and tax policies seen as inflationary. Eyes also on his key cabinet picks.

Index Update

The S&P 500 rose 0.4% and Nasdaq 0.7%, led by a tech rebound, while the Dow dipped 50+ points. Market caution persists after Fed Chair Powell signaled no immediate rate cuts amid strong economic growth and a robust labor market. Wall Street is also closely watching Trump’s cabinet picks, including FCC chair contender Brendan Carr and the Treasury Secretary race.

Goldman Sachs forecasts a 10% upside for the S&P 500 by the end of 2025, predicting the index could reach 6,500. While the S&P 500 has slipped 1.5% over the past week, closing at 5,893.62 on Monday, the investment bank expects continued growth in the US economy and corporate earnings to drive the market higher.

Market Movers

The tech sector led a rebound after a tough week, with Tesla soaring 5.6% on reports of Trump exploring self-driving regulatory easing, lifting the Nasdaq. Apple (+1.3%), Netflix (+2.8%), and AMD (+3%) also rallied. Investors are now focused on Nvidia's earnings Wednesday for insights into AI chip demand, though its shares fell 1.3% on reports of overheating issues in servers. 

Futures Update

US stock futures were flat Tuesday as investors awaited earnings from Nvidia and major retailers. Walmart rose 1.5% after hours ahead of its report, while Alphabet fell 1% on news the DOJ may push Google to divest Chrome. Trump Media dropped 3% amid talks to buy crypto platform Bakkt.

Bitcoin rose 0.8% to $91,359.6, staying close to recent record highs, bolstered by MicroStrategy’s massive $4.6B purchase of 51,780 BTC. The company, now holding 331,200 BTC, continues to be the largest corporate holder. Optimism around potential Trump-era crypto regulations also supports the bullish trend

The broader index of the Wall Street, the S&P 500 ended 0.39% higher. From the technical standpoint the index is still hovering in a bullish territory, as it traded well above its crucial long-term as well as short-term support levels of 20D, 50D, 100D and 200D Exponential moving averages (EMAs). Further, the leading momentum indicator 14D Relative Strength Index (RSI) settled at 54.28, implies bulls are still heavy on bears. Also, the spread between 12D and 21D EMAs is positive implies index is in short-term bullish as well.  6,000 level will act as a psychological resistance in short-term as decisive breakout above 6,000 market could send the index towards 6,100 – 6,200 range, meanwhile 5,800 is the crucial support in the short-term.