Daily Market Recap: Stocks Rise, Yields Fall, and Commodities React to Trade and Fiscal Developments

Image Source : Krish Capital Pty Ltd

Index Update:  U.S. stocks advanced on Monday, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all posting gains, driven by strong performances in Big Tech and easing trade tensions after Canada withdrew its proposed digital services tax. Investor optimism was further boosted by hopes for new trade agreements and expectations of Fed rate cuts, as falling Treasury yields reinforced the positive sentiment.

Market Movers:  On Monday, the top gainers were BitMine Immersion Technologies, Inc (+694.84%), followed by Artelo Biosciences, Inc (+95.43%). On the contrary INmune Bio Inc (-56.66%) Dogness (International) Corporation (- 42.54%) declined the most the same day.

Commodities Update:  Crude oil prices showed mixed performance as WTI hovered near $65.7 per barrel while Brent slipped to around $66.4, weighed down by concerns over rising supply. OPEC+ is expected to raise output by 411,000 bpd in August, continuing prior monthly increases and potentially adding 1.78 million bpd in 2025—over 1.5% of global demand. The move is seen as both a rebuke to overproducing members and a strategy by Saudi Arabia to regain market share from U.S. shale. Easing geopolitical tensions and uncertainty over future U.S. tariffs also pressured prices. Gold prices rose to approximately $3,330 per ounce, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and global trade uncertainties. The dollar slipped amid growing concerns about the U.S. fiscal deficit and political wrangling over a major tax-and-spending bill. Safe-haven demand for gold was further fueled by ongoing tariff risks and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, with investors awaiting key labor market data for further policy signals.

Macro Update:  The U.S. Logistics Managers’ Index rose to 60.7 in June 2025, indicating heightened supply chain activity, with only the third reading above 60.0 in over two years. The increase was driven by a surge in Inventory Levels as importers rushed to act during a tariff pause, pushing Inventory Costs above 80.0 for the first time since late 2022. Meanwhile, Warehousing Capacity contracted for the first time since January 2023, reflecting tighter space amid rising stockpiles.

Bonds Commentary:  The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell to a two-month low of around 4.22%, driven by concerns over the nation’s growing fiscal deficit and uncertainty surrounding trade negotiations. Investors are watching the Senate’s progress on a major tax-and-spending bill that could significantly increase national debt, as well as the approaching expiration of a tariff reprieve. Expectations of deeper Fed rate cuts, supported by dovish signals and political pressure, also weighed on yields, with markets now looking ahead to the upcoming jobs report for further economic insight.

Futures Update:  U.S. stock futures dipped slightly, pulling back from record highs as investors weighed developments in trade and fiscal policy while anticipating upcoming labor market data. The recent rally in major indexes was driven by easing trade tensions and growing expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

Stocks largely advanced throughout Monday’s trading session, building on the strong gains from last week. The S&P 500 increased by 31.86 points, or 0.52%, closing at 6,204.94. From a technical analysis standpoint, the index has moved well away from its key moving averages, and the daily candle strength indicates mild weakness, suggesting a potential period of consolidation in the near term. Additionally, the 14-period RSI has entered overbought territory, which could lead to some profit-taking soon. The critical support level is around 6,000, while resistance is anticipated near 6,300.