Daily Market Recap: Stocks Slide, Oil Gains, and Inflation in Focus

Image Source : Krish Capital Pty Ltd

Index Update

US stocks fell on Thursday, with the Dow down 0.37%, the S&P 500 losing 0.33%, and the Nasdaq dropping 0.53%. Losses were broad, led by energy, communication services, and tech. Market sentiment weakened after President Trump announced a 25% tariff on auto imports, sparking fears of retaliation. General Motors and Ford dropped 7.4% and 3.9%, respectively, due to reliance on foreign production. In extended trading, Lululemon plunged 10.1% after issuing a weaker-than-expected outlook for Q1 and 2025.

Market Movers

On Thursday, the top gainers were  Petco Health and Wellness Company, Inc (+19.67%), followed by EDAP TMS S.A. (+12.68%). On the contrary Telesat Corporation (-10.78%) and Lixiang Education Holding Co., Ltd (-10.76%) declined the most the same day.

Commodities Update

Brent crude oil futures neared $74 per barrel on Friday, reaching a four-week high and heading for a third consecutive weekly gain due to tightening global supply concerns. The US threatened 25% tariffs on buyers of Venezuelan crude, disrupting trade, especially with China, prompting India’s Reliance Industries to halt imports. US crude stockpiles dropped 3.34 million barrels, more than twice the expected decline, signaling strong demand. Meanwhile, markets are evaluating the impact of new US auto tariffs, with additional levies set for April 2. Offsetting price gains, OPEC+ plans to revive idled production in April, while Russian oil is expected to return to global markets.

Macro Update

The US PCE price index is expected to rise 0.3% month-over-month in February 2025, matching the previous two months. Core PCE is also projected to increase 0.3%. Year-over-year, headline PCE inflation is forecasted to stay at 2.5%, while core PCE may edge up to 2.7% from 2.6%. The Fed raised its PCE inflation forecast for 2025 to 2.7% (from 2.5%) and for 2026 to 2.2% (from 2.1%), keeping the 2027 outlook at 2%.

Futures Update

US stock futures dipped on Friday as investors awaited the PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. The Fed raised its inflation forecast, citing tariff concerns, adding uncertainty to future rate cuts.

Bitcoin traded at $85,169 on Friday, March 28, down 2.32% from the previous session. Over the past four weeks, it declined 1.02%, but it remains up 21.81% over the past year. 

Stocks showed a lack of clear direction during Thursday's trading session, finishing lower after fluctuating around the unchanged mark. This decline followed a significant pullback on Wednesday, with the Nasdaq falling 94.98 points (0.5%) to 17,804.03, the Dow decreasing 155.09 points (0.4%) to 42,299.70, and the S&P 500 dropping 18.89 points (0.33%) to 5,693.32. The S&P 500 appears to be encountering resistance at higher levels and may continue to decline, with key support around 5,603 and resistance at 5,787. Additionally, the 14-period RSI is moving down from the midpoint, indicating a potential pullback ahead.