Geopolitical Uncertainty and Energy Market Pressures Drive Mixed Global Market Sentiment

Index Update:  U.S. equity markets ended higher on Wednesday, with the Dow gaining 0.9%, the S&P 500 rising 0.7%, and the Nasdaq 100 advancing 0.8%, as reports of a 15-point U.S. proposal to Tehran strengthened expectations of a potential diplomatic resolution in the Middle East. The rally was supported by a decline in WTI crude prices and lower Treasury yields, which helped ease inflation concerns and encouraged broader risk appetite. Technology stocks led the gains, with Nvidia up 2% and semiconductor peers AMD and Intel surging more than 7%. Financials and industrials also performed well, with JPMorgan and GE Aerospace posting solid advances. However, energy stocks lagged due to weaker oil prices, while Micron Technology fell 3.4%, extending its losing streak as investors reassessed capital spending outlook following recent results.

Market Movers:  On Wednesday, the top gainers were MKDWELL Tech Inc. (+70.36%) and Paysign, Inc. (36.60%). On the contrary, Battalion Oil Corporation. (-42.78%) and Maze Therapeutics, Inc. (-35.24%) declined the most the same day.

Commodities Update:  Crude oil prices moved higher on Thursday, with WTI rising above USD 92 per barrel and Brent surpassing USD 104, as geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran continued to disrupt global energy markets. Conflicting signals on ceasefire negotiations, including Iran’s rejection of talks and assertion of control over the Strait of Hormuz, contrasted with ongoing U.S. diplomatic efforts to restore stability. The near-disruption of this critical oil transit route has significantly curtailed global supply, while several Asia-Pacific nations face growing fuel shortages, sustaining upward pressure on oil prices. Gold and silver prices declined on Thursday, with gold falling below USD 4,500 per ounce and silver slipping under USD 70, as ongoing uncertainty around U.S.–Iran tensions weighed on market sentiment. Conflicting signals on peace negotiations and rising geopolitical risks, including increased U.S. troop deployment, kept volatility elevated. At the same time, persistent inflation concerns driven by higher energy prices have triggered a more hawkish stance from central banks, adding further pressure on precious metals.

Macro Updates:  Trump–Xi Summit Rescheduled Amid Geopolitical Tensions

U.S. President Donald Trump is set to visit Beijing on May 14–15 for a high-level meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, following a delay caused by escalating tensions related to the U.S.–Iran conflict. The summit, originally planned for late March, was postponed as Trump remained in the U.S. during ongoing military developments, with China acknowledging the circumstances. The White House also indicated that Xi and his spouse are expected to visit Washington later this year.

U.S. Crude Inventories Surge Amid Mixed Fuel Stock Trends

U.S. crude oil inventories rose sharply by 6.9 million barrels to 456.2 million barrels in the week ended March 20, significantly exceeding expectations and marking the fifth consecutive weekly build, with notable increases at the Cushing hub. Distillate inventories also increased unexpectedly, while gasoline stocks declined more than anticipated, reflecting mixed demand and supply dynamics across fuel categories.

Bonds Commentary:  The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to around 4.38% on Thursday as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty over U.S.–Iran negotiations drove inflation concerns through higher energy prices. Iran’s rejection of a ceasefire proposal and competing conditions around the Strait of Hormuz added to market uncertainty, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates steady. Investors are now focused on upcoming jobless claims data for further insight into labor market conditions.

Futures Update:  U.S. equity futures traded lower on Thursday, even as oil prices advanced, with investors closely monitoring developments around a potential resolution to the Iran conflict. Dow futures were down 203 points (0.4%), S&P 500 futures declined 35 points (0.5%), and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 156 points (0.6%).

After a volatile session, the S&P 500 Index rebounded on Wednesday, closing up 0.54% at 6,591.89, though it pulled back from intraday highs. Technically, the index remains in a short-term corrective phase, with lower highs since late February and downward-sloping 20- and 50-day EMAs acting as resistance. The RSI is below neutral, reflecting a bearish bias. Immediate support is seen near 6,490, while resistance around 6,625 may cap further upside.