Investor Caution Grows Ahead of Key Data as Commodities Tumble and Housing Slows

Image Source : Krish Capital Pty Ltd

Index Update

U.S. stock futures edged lower as investors awaited key economic releases, including the March PCE price index and the first estimate of Q1 GDP. Attention is also on upcoming earnings reports from Meta Platforms and Microsoft. In extended trading, Super Micro Computer (SMCI) dropped over 15% after issuing weak preliminary Q3 results. Despite this, equities extended their winning streak in the previous session, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all posting gains for a sixth consecutive day. Optimism was supported by comments from Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and President Trump suggesting progress on trade deals, including one with India.

Market Movers

On Tuesday, the top gainers were LifeMD, Inc (+31.15%), followed by TMC the metals company Inc (+8.76%). On the contrary Ultra Clean Holdings, Inc (-14.35%) and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (-7.94%) declined the most the same day.

Commodities Update

Crude oil prices continued their decline, with WTI and Brent futures falling for a third straight session and nearing their lowest levels since April 2021. Weighed down by growing uncertainty over global trade policies—particularly the escalating tariff tensions between the U.S. and China—oil is on track for a monthly loss of over 16%, marking the steepest drop since late 2021. The sharp increase in U.S. crude inventories, as reported by the API, and fears of a global economic slowdown have further dampened sentiment. Compounding the pressure, weak U.S. consumer confidence data and speculation that OPEC+ may expedite production increases have added to the bearish outlook.

Meanwhile, gold prices dropped below $3,290 per ounce as easing fears over U.S. tariffs reduced the appeal of safe-haven assets. The decline followed executive actions aimed at preventing additional tariffs on foreign cars and reducing levies on imported auto parts, alongside reported progress in trade talks. Despite the pullback, gold remains on course for its fourth consecutive monthly gain—up over 6%—bolstered by ongoing trade tensions, signs of economic strain in the U.S., strong ETF inflows, central bank buying, and speculative demand in China.

Macro Update

U.S. mortgage application volumes fell 4.2% in the week ending April 25, extending a steep decline from the previous week and highlighting weakening housing demand. Despite a slight drop in mortgage rates, economic uncertainty and signs of a softening labor market weighed on activity. Purchase applications declined 4% week-over-week and 7% month-over-month, while refinance applications also fell 4%, underscoring continued caution among borrowers.

Futures Update

U.S. stock futures were mostly lower ahead of a wave of economic data and corporate earnings, capping off a volatile month for markets. The Dow edged slightly higher, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures declined. Despite earlier losses driven by concerns over tariffs, major indices have recovered much of their ground. The S&P 500 is down slightly for the month, the Dow is still set for a notable loss, and the Nasdaq has posted a modest gain.

Starting the day without a clear direction, the stock market generally moved higher throughout Tuesday’s trading session. The S&P 500 gained 32.08 points, or 0.58%, closing at 5,560.82. From a technical standpoint, the index is currently near its 50-period EMA, indicating potential short-term volatility. This may suggest a period of consolidation before a clear trend emerges. Additionally, the 14-period RSI is at its midpoint, implying sideways movement in the near future. Key support levels are identified at 5,335, while resistance is noted at 5,712.