Market Overview: Economic Data, Commodity Movements, and Stock Trends

Image Source: Krish Capital Pty Ltd

Index Update

Unemployment claims dropped by 1,000 to 219,000, contrary to expectations of a 4,000 rise. US retail spending increased by 3.8% from November 1 to December 24, according to Mastercard SpendingPulse. Most megacap stocks declined, but Apple outperformed following a positive report from Wedbush. United States Steel fell 3.0% as its potential buyer, Nippon Steel, delayed its acquisition from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025. GameStop saw a rally after a post from Roaring Kitty (Keith Gill). With no major US economic data expected, trading activity is likely to remain subdued.

Market Movers

On Thursday, the top gainers were  Zoomcar Holdings, Inc (+102.1%), followed by Palladyne AI Corp (+37.45%). On the contrary,           Carbon Revolution Public Limited Company (-29.04%) and Neuphoria Therapeutics Inc. (-26.55%) declined the most the same day.

Commodities Update

Brent crude oil futures rose above $73 per barrel on Friday, showing a slight weekly gain amid light year-end trading. Oil prices gained momentum after China announced new economic measures to stimulate growth, including increased flexibility in using government bond proceeds, potentially boosting demand. API data also indicated a fifth consecutive drop in commercial crude inventories. The World Bank raised China's growth forecast for 2024 and 2025 but noted ongoing challenges in the property sector. Meanwhile, major European energy companies are prioritizing oil and gas over renewables for short-term profits. Despite this, oil is still on track for an annual decline of nearly 3%.

Macro Update

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note remained little changed below 4.58% on Friday, near its seven-month high, as investors assessed the Federal Reserve's policy outlook. US jobless claims dropped to a one-month low, indicating a cooling but healthy labor market. Markets are pricing in only 35 basis points of cuts for 2025, suggesting a low chance of further reductions. Treasury yields are also supported by expectations that policies from president-elect Donald Trump could fuel inflation and limit the Fed's ability to cut borrowing costs.      

Futures Update

US stock futures modestly declined on Friday following a quiet post-holiday session on Wall Street Thursday, with jobless claims data having little effect on expectations for the Federal Reserve's outlook.

Bitcoin traded at $96,786 on Friday, December 27th, up by 1.13% from the previous session. Over the past four weeks, Bitcoin gained 1.11%, and over the last 12 months, its price increased by 127.89%.

After starting the session lower, stocks managed to recover throughout the trading day on Thursday. The major indices climbed significantly from their early lows, spending much of the day close to the unchanged line. Ultimately, the major averages finished the day with mixed results. The Dow inched up 28.77 points, or 0.1 percent, to close at 43,325.80, while the Nasdaq fell by 10.77 points, or 0.1 percent, ending at 20,020.37. The S&P 500 dipped 2.45 points, or less than a tenth of a percent, to finish at 6,037.58. From a technical perspective, the S&P 500 is currently hovering near a prior resistance level and may experience some consolidation, hinting at potential bearishness in the short term. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands around the midpoint, suggesting a neutral bias. Key levels to monitor include resistance at 6,080 and support at 5,930.