Market Recap: Index Performance, Movers, Commodities, and Economic Outlook

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Index Update

The Dow fell 2.51%, its worst week since October, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropped 1.66% and 2.51%, respectively. The decline followed Walmart’s weak outlook and data indicating declining consumer sentiment amid inflation concerns. Investors now await the PCE price index report, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, along with earnings from Home Depot, Lowe’s, and AI leader Nvidia, which reports Wednesday amid competition from China’s DeepSeek.

Market Movers

On Friday, the top gainers were Five9, Inc. (+19.33%), followed by ACELYRIN, INC (+17.51%). On the contrary, bluebird bio, Inc. (-30.26%) and Aspire Biopharma Holdings, Inc. (-20.45%) declined the most the same day.

Commodities Update

WTI crude oil futures fell to about $70.2 per barrel on Monday, nearing a two-month low due to expectations of resumed oil exports from Kurdistan. Iraq's oil ministry confirmed steps to restart crude exports via the Iraq-Turkey pipeline, potentially resolving a long-standing dispute. Traders are also monitoring Ukraine peace talks, which could ease sanctions on Russian oil and boost global supply. Meanwhile, the Gaza ceasefire faces challenges, with Hamas accusing Israel of delaying Palestinian prisoner releases. The first phase of the truce ends in early March, but the next steps remain uncertain.

Macro Update

The US 10-year Treasury yield held around 4.4% on Monday, its lowest since mid-December, as traders assessed trade policies, economic data, and monetary policy outlook. Key focus this week includes the PCE report for inflation insights and the second estimate of Q1 2025 GDP, expected at 2.3% growth. Last week's PMI data showed a services sector contraction, stronger manufacturing growth, rising input prices, and weakened business expectations, fueling concerns about the economy and increasing Fed rate cut bets.

Futures Update

US stock futures rose on Monday as the market sought to recover from last week's sharp selloff driven by economic concerns. Bitcoin traded at $95,906 on Monday, February 24, down 0.37% from the previous session. Over the past four weeks, it declined 8.58%, but gained 85.26% over the last year.

Stocks experienced a sharp decline throughout Friday's trading session, building on the pullback observed on Thursday. The major indexes all recorded substantial losses, with the Dow falling to its lowest closing level in a month. As the market approached the end of the day, the major averages remained roughly flat, close to their lowest points of the session. The Nasdaq fell by 438.36 points (2.2 percent) to 19,524.01, and the S&P 500 decreased by 104.39 points (1.7 percent) to close at 6,013.12. From a technical perspective, the S&P 500 is currently within a rising channel, suggesting it may continue to trend upward in the near future. The 14-period RSI is hovering around the midpoint, indicating a neutral stance at present levels. Key technical levels to watch include 6,100 as a potential resistance level and 5,934 as a support level to help evaluate the market's next direction.