Market Recap: Volatility Continues Amid Trade and Geopolitical Uncertainty

Image Source : Krish Capital Pty Ltd

Index Update

February was volatile for markets as Trump’s tariff policies and economic concerns hurt investor sentiment. The Dow fell 1.58%, the S&P 500 lost 1.42%, and the Nasdaq dropped 3.97%. Traders now await Friday’s jobs report for labor market insights.

Market Movers

On Friday, the top gainers were Progyny, Inc. (+13.59%), followed by ANI Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (+11.76%). On the contrary, Praxis Precision Medicines, Inc. (-38.9%) and DLocal Limited. (-32.95%) declined the most the same day.

Commodities Update

Brent crude oil futures fell to $72.5 per barrel due to concerns over a global trade war and geopolitical tensions. A tense meeting between US President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy raised uncertainty over a peace deal, while impending US tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China fueled fears of slower growth and weaker energy demand. However, strong manufacturing data from China provided some support, and ongoing US-Ukraine tensions cast doubt on lifting sanctions on Russia’s oil sector, potentially keeping supply tight.

Macro Update

The dollar index fell to 107.2, ending a three-day streak, as the euro gained on optimism over a Ukraine peace plan. The dollar weakened further after US Commerce Secretary Lutnick suggested tariffs on Mexico and Canada could be lower than 25%, though the 10% tariff on China remains firm. Despite this, traders expect the dollar to stay strong amid the trade war, potentially limiting Fed rate cuts.

Futures Update

US stock futures remained volatile as Wall Street aimed to recover from a rough February. Investors focused on the March 4 deadline for Trump’s proposed tariffs. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggested tariffs on Mexico and Canada could be lower than 25%, while the 10% tariff on China remained unchanged.

Bitcoin traded at $92,316 on March 3, down 2.04% from the previous session. Over the past four weeks, it declined 5.56%, but it remains up 36.77% over the past year.

Following a significant pullback, stocks experienced notable volatility on Friday, with major indices closing sharply higher after fluctuating around the unchanged line. The Nasdaq increased by 302.86 points (1.6%) to 18,847.28, and the S&P 500 rose by 92.93 points (1.6%) to 5,954.51. Technically, the S&P 500 is within a rising channel, suggesting a potential upward trend. The 14-period RSI is neutral, and important levels to monitor are 6,100 as potential resistance and 5,850 as possible support, both critical for assessing future market direction.