Image Souce: Krish Capital Pty Ltd

Index Update

U.S. stocks closed sharply higher on Friday, kicking off November with gains as strong earnings from Amazon (+6.2%) and Intel (+7.8%) lifted market sentiment despite a disappointing jobs report. The S&P 500 rose 0.4%, Nasdaq climbed 0.8%, and the Dow gained 288 points. Investors are eyeing the Fed’s policy meeting and the U.S. presidential election next week, which could bring volatility. Notably, all three indices fell this week.

Market Movers

Boeing (+3.5%) celebrated a tentative union deal, while Chevron (+2.8%) beat earnings expectations. Microsoft edged up 1%, though Apple slipped 1.3% on soft guidance. The jobs report showed only 12K jobs added in October, underperforming expectations due to hurricane impacts and the Boeing strike.

Macro Update

The dollar index fell below 104 on Monday as investors brace for the U.S. presidential election and the Fed's upcoming policy decision. Speculation around Trump’s potential return fueled recent gains, but uncertainty has traders pulling back. A modest 25 bps rate cut is expected this week, with another likely in December. The dollar weakened against multiple currencies, especially the kiwi, aussie, and yen. All eyes are on the U.S. presidential election tomorrow! The race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is incredibly close, with both candidates campaigning hard in key battleground states. Harris gained momentum from a recent Iowa poll showing her leading Trump by 3 points, bolstered by strong support among women. However, the race remains tightly contested. A New York Times/Siena poll shows her with narrow leads in Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, and Wisconsin, while both are tied in crucial states like Pennsylvania and Michigan. Trump leads by 3 in Arizona. It’s going to be a nail-biter!

Commodity Update

Brent crude oil futures climbed above $74/barrel for the fourth straight session as OPEC+ delays December production plans again, aiming to stabilize prices amid economic uncertainty. Renewed Middle East tensions, particularly Iran's threats against Israel, are further boosting prices. Meanwhile, gold stabilized around $2,740/oz, supported by a softer dollar and inflation hedging ahead of the U.S. election and Fed’s expected rate cut. Silver also saw a slight rebound, rising above $32.60/oz amid weakening dollar demand and hopes for stimulus from China. All eyes are on upcoming central bank decisions globally as markets remain cautious.

Futures Update

U.S. stock futures are mixed this Monday as traders gear up for a week packed with potential market-moving events. With the presidential election just a day away, candidates are making their final appeals in key battleground states. Dow futures were down 30 points (-0.1%), while S&P 500 futures rose 10 points (+0.2%) and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 40 points (+0.2%). Last week ended on a positive note, buoyed by strong earnings from Amazon, despite a weak jobs report showing only 12K jobs added in October.

Major U.S. indexes recorded their second consecutive week of losses, though stocks rebounded on Friday after a tech-driven decline. Treasury yields hit four-month highs amid weak October job growth, and market volatility remained high ahead of the upcoming election. The Nasdaq led the rebound, gaining 144.77 points (0.8%), closing at 18,239.92, while the S&P 500 rose by 23.37 points (0.41%) to finish at 5,728.81. Technically, the S&P 500 broke below its rising trendline, indicating a possible consolidation phase with bearish signals. The declining 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests a negative outlook, prompting traders to watch key price levels—resistance at 5,800 and support at 5,648.

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