"Market Roundup: Wall Street Gains, Treasury Yields Rise, and Oil Faces Supply Concerns"

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Index Update

Wall Street saw strong gains in 2024, with the S&P 500 up 25%, the Dow Jones rising 14%, and the Nasdaq surging 31%. However, a sharp sell-off last Friday affected all major sectors, driven by rising US Treasury yields and the Fed signaling limited rate cuts in 2025. Treasury Secretary Yellen warned of a potential debt ceiling crisis by mid-January, urging congressional action. Meanwhile, Donald Trump plans to issue at least 25 executive orders upon taking office on January 20. Key economic data releases this week include pending home sales, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, and housing market statistics.

Market Movers

On Friday, the top gainers were  WiMi Hologram Cloud Inc. (+67.44%), followed by Quantum-Si Incorporated (+58.14%). On the contrary, Neuphoria Therapeutics Inc (-8.54%) and    XCHG Limited (-7.08%) declined the most the same day.

Commodities Update

Brent crude oil futures hovered around $73.8 per barrel amid thin trading, as attention shifted to a potentially oversupplied market in 2025. Concerns about weak future oil demand from China and OPEC's challenges in restoring production also weighed on prices. Additionally, President-elect Donald Trump's proposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico and plans for stricter sanctions on Iran are under scrutiny for their potential market impact. Oil remains on track for an annual decline, constrained by factors like Middle East tensions and uncertainty over Chinese demand.

Macro Update

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note stayed above 4.6% on Monday, its highest since May, amid expectations of limited Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025. Investors reduced debt holdings ahead of year-end, pushing yields higher. Strong US economic data, including lower-than-expected unemployment claims and robust retail sales, supported the Fed's projections for just two rate cuts in 2025. Inflation risks are heightened by President-elect Trump's proposed tariffs, tax cuts, and expansionary fiscal policies. As a result, markets now expect only one rate cut in 2025, reflecting ongoing inflation concerns and a cautious monetary policy outlook.

Futures Update

US stock futures declined slightly on Monday as Wall Street began the final trading week of the year, signaling a cautious start to the week.

On Monday, December 30th, Bitcoin traded at $93,404, down 0.18% from the previous session. Over the past four weeks, Bitcoin dropped 4.17%, but its price increased by 119.75% over the last 12 months. 

U.S. stocks dropped significantly on Friday, with all major indexes closing lower. The tech-heavy Nasdaq saw a sharper decline as yields on the 10-Year Treasury Note reached their highest level in nearly eight months. The S&P 500 finished at 5,970.85, down 66.73 points or 1.11%, while the Nasdaq closed at 19,722.03, falling 298.33 points or 1.49%. From a technical standpoint, the S&P 500 is currently trading near a previous resistance level, indicating potential consolidation and suggesting a short-term bearish trend. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around the midpoint, reflecting a neutral bias. Important levels to watch include resistance at 6,080 and support at 5,930.