Market Update: Stocks, Commodities, and Economic Trends Amid Tariff Uncertainty

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Index Update

US stock futures declined on Wednesday, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 down 0.4% and Dow Jones futures falling nearly 80 points, as investors awaited President Trump’s tariff announcement. Reports suggested a possible 20% tariff on most imports, though details remain uncertain. The White House confirmed the tariffs would take immediate effect but left room for negotiations. Markets also looked ahead to the ADP employment report for insights into private-sector job growth. Among megacap stocks, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla traded lower, while Amazon and Alphabet posted modest gains.

Market Movers

On Tuesday, the top gainers were    Omeros Corporation (+10.34%), followed by Sportradar Group AG (+8.74%). On the contrary Open Lending Corporation (-20.29%) and Phathom Pharmaceuticals, Inc (-4.31%) declined the most the same day.

Commodities Update

WTI and Brent crude oil futures fell below $71 and $74 per barrel, respectively, as markets reacted to impending US tariffs that could escalate the global trade war. The White House provided no details but stated the tariffs would take effect immediately. President Trump suggested they would impact multiple countries, raising concerns about reduced energy demand. Oil prices had recently found support from Trump’s threats of secondary sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil. API data showed crude inventories rose by 6 million barrels, while gasoline stocks fell by 1.6 million barrels. Investors await the upcoming OPEC+ meeting.

Meanwhile, gold rose above $3,130 per ounce amid risk aversion driven by the tariff concerns. Gold gained further support from expectations of interest rate cuts, central bank buying, and strong demand for gold-backed ETFs, with Chinese gold ETFs adding 233,000 ounces over the past week. Weak U.S. jobs data and a poor manufacturing report also contributed to gold’s rise, with investors now awaiting Friday’s nonfarm payroll report for insights into the Fed's rate path.

Macro Update

U.S. mortgage applications fell 1.6% in the week ending March 28, extending a three-week decline, following a 2.0% drop the previous week. Refinancing applications fell 5.6% to a five-week low, while new home purchase applications rose 1.5% for the sixth consecutive week, reaching a nine-week high. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate edged down slightly to 6.70% from 6.71%.

Futures Update

U.S. stock futures declined Wednesday as investors remained cautious ahead of President Trump’s tariff announcement. Dow Jones Futures fell 120 points (-0.3%), S&P 500 Futures dropped 20 points (-0.4%), and Nasdaq 100 Futures declined 90 points (-0.5%). Trump is set to unveil reciprocal tariffs, with measures taking effect immediately. The tariffs aim to correct trade imbalances, boost revenue, and reshore manufacturing jobs, though uncertainty over their scope and potential retaliation has kept markets on edge. Analysts expect tariffs to target 15-20 key trade partners, with average duties of 15% and higher levies on China, autos, steel, and aluminum, potentially amounting to $600-$650 billion—five times the scale of the 2018-2019 tariffs.

After bouncing back from an early decline and primarily trading higher in the morning on Tuesday, stocks exhibited a lack of clear direction for the rest of the session. The major indexes fluctuated back and forth around the breakeven point throughout the day. Ultimately, the tech-heavy Nasdaq closed notably higher, rising by 150.60 points or 0.9 percent to finish at 17,449.89. The S&P 500 also saw gains, climbing 21.22 points or 0.38 percent to reach 5,633.06. The S&P 500 has shown strong support at key levels and is on an upward trend, indicating the potential for further gains, with support identified at around 5,504 and resistance at 5,712. Additionally, the 14-period RSI is beginning to rebound from lower levels, reinforcing a positive outlook.