Market Wrap-Up: Tariffs, Tax Uncertainty, and Commodity Volatility Drive Weekly Trends

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Index Update: President Trump proposed a 50% tariff on EU imports and threatened a 25% tariff on Apple if it doesn't move iPhone production to the U.S., causing Apple shares to drop 4% in premarket trading. These trade tensions, combined with fiscal concerns following the House's approval of a new tax bill, prompted a market shift toward safe-haven assets.

Market Movers: On Thursday, the top gainers were  Vigil Neuroscience, Inc (+240.69%), followed by Navitas Semiconductor Corporation (+151.83%). On the contrary Sunrun Inc (-36.3%) and Enphase Energy, Inc (-20.13%) declined the most the same day.

Commodities Update: Oil prices declined, with WTI falling below $61 and Brent nearing $64 per barrel, both heading for their first weekly losses in three weeks. The drop was driven by expectations that OPEC+ may raise production for a third consecutive month, potentially adding 411,000 barrels per day in July. This, combined with a surprise rise in U.S. crude inventories and surging domestic storage demand, raised concerns about a growing oversupply. Markets are also watching U.S.-Iran nuclear talks and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly fears of Israeli strikes on Iranian facilities. Gold prices rose to around $3,330 per ounce, reversing previous losses and poised for a weekly gain. The metal benefited from safe-haven demand amid concerns over the U.S. fiscal outlook, following a costly tax bill and a Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating. A weaker U.S. dollar also supported gold by enhancing its appeal to international buyers. Geopolitical tensions, including potential Israeli action against Iran and ongoing conflict in Ukraine, further underpinned demand for the precious metal.

Macro Update: The yield on the US 10-year Treasury held around 4.53%, easing from recent highs after the House narrowly passed President Trump's tax-and-spending bill, now headed to the Senate. Yields had spiked earlier over concerns the bill could worsen the $36 trillion national debt, with the CBO estimating its cost at nearly $4 trillion. Investor worries were intensified by Moody’s recent downgrade of the US credit rating, while Fed Governor Waller suggested potential rate cuts later this year, depending on tariff developments.

Futures Update: U.S. stock index futures were relatively stable, with minor movements across major indices. The Dow Jones Futures edged slightly lower, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Futures posted modest gains. Despite this steadiness, all three main Wall Street indices are on track to record weekly losses of between 1.5% and 2%, as investor sentiment remains cautious due to concerns over high U.S. debt levels and a major tax cut proposal.

Stocks mostly advanced during Thursday's trading session but retreated in the latter part of the day to end roughly unchanged. The S&P 500 declined by 2.62 points, or a small percentage, closing at 5,842. Technical analysis indicates that the current price faced resistance at a confluence zone and continued to drift lower, signaling a possible short-term consolidation with a bearish tilt, as previously noted. However, the upcoming golden cross of key moving averages suggests a potential shift toward a more bullish trend, which may act as a support level in the near term. Support is expected around 5,755, with resistance near 5,944.