Markets Advance on Diplomatic Optimism as Oil Volatility and Macro Signals Shape Sentiment

index/">index/">index Update:  U.S. equities extended gains for a second straight session, with the S&P 500 rising 1.2% to its highest level since early February, the Dow up 318 points, and the Nasdaq/">Nasdaq/">Nasdaq advancing 2%, supported by optimism over potential US–Iran talks and a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Gains were led by communication services and consumer discretionary stocks, while energy lagged due to falling oil prices. Earnings/">Earnings/">Earnings remained in focus, with mixed performance across financials—JPMorgan edged lower after cutting guidance and Wells Fargo dropped sharply on weak results—while BlackRock and Citigroup gained on strong Earnings/">Earnings/">Earnings, J&J rose after lifting its outlook, and American Airlines surged on Merger/">Merger/">Merger speculation.

Market Movers:  On Tuesday, the top gainers were Avanos Medical, Inc. (+69.51%) and Mega Fortune Company Limited. (48.86%). On the contrary, Allogene Therapeutics, Inc. (-25.49%) and Sky Quarry Inc. (-20.83%) declined the most the same day.

Commodities Update:  WTI crude rose toward $93 per barrel and Brent approached $96, with oil markets remaining highly volatile as traders closely monitor Middle East developments and the potential resumption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the U.S. military’s claim of halting commercial activity to and from Iranian ports, some Iran-linked vessels continue to transit the strait, indicating partial disruption. Geopolitical tensions remain elevated amid reports of additional U.S. troop deployments and Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon, though expectations of a second round of U.S.–Iran talks and comments suggesting a possible resolution to the conflict are providing some optimism to markets. Gold climbed above $4,800 per ounce and silver surged past $79, supported by easing geopolitical concerns as hopes grow for a potential US–Iran agreement, which could reduce the risk of an energy-driven Inflation/">Inflation/">Inflation spike. Ongoing discussions toward a second round of talks, despite continued US naval restrictions and Iran’s consideration of a temporary shipment halt, have improved sentiment. Additional support for precious metals came from weaker crude prices, with oil falling below $90 per barrel, a softer dollar at a six-week low, and reduced expectations of aggressive monetary tightening as the Federal Reserve maintains a cautious, wait-and-see approach toward Inflation/">Inflation/">Inflation.

Macro Updates

Mortgage/">Mortgage/">Mortgage Applications Rebound as Rates Ease, Purchase Demand/">Demand/">Demand Remains Weak

U.S. Mortgage/">Mortgage/">Mortgage applications rose 1.8% in the week ended April 10, 2026, marking the first increase in five weeks, driven primarily by a 5.1% jump in refinancing activity as Mortgage/">Mortgage/">Mortgage rates declined. The average 30-year fixed Mortgage/">Mortgage/">Mortgage rate fell to 6.42% from 6.51%, its lowest level in about a month, supported by a drop in Treasury yields amid easing geopolitical tensions and hopes for diplomatic progress. However, purchase applications declined 1%, with homebuying Demand/">Demand/">Demand remaining subdued due to ongoing economic uncertainty, keeping activity below year-ago levels for a second consecutive week.

Dollar Weakens Amid Easing Safe-Haven Demand/">Demand/">Demand and Rate Pause Expectations

The dollar index/">index/">index hovered near 98, close to six-week lows, as improving prospects for a US–Iran diplomatic resolution reduced safe-haven Demand/">Demand/">Demand and reversed much of its recent conflict-driven gains. Softer oil prices further eased Inflation/">Inflation/">Inflation concerns, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged for the rest of the year, with any potential rate cuts likely delayed. Meanwhile, investors remain focused on upcoming economic data, including trade price indexes and key Manufacturing/">Manufacturing/">Manufacturing and housing indicators, for further market direction.

US Crude Inventories Surge, Defying Expectations of Draw

U.S. Crude Oil inventories rose sharply by 6.10 million barrels in the week ended April 10, 2026, significantly exceeding expectations of a 1.3 million barrel draw and accelerating from the prior week’s 3.72 million barrel increase. This marked the fifth consecutive weekly build, signaling continued stockpile accumulation despite persistent geopolitical tensions and uncertainty surrounding global Supply/">Supply/">Supply dynamics.

Bonds Commentary:  The 10-year US Treasury Yield hovered around 4.25% after declining for two consecutive sessions, as easing Inflation/">Inflation/">Inflation concerns—driven by falling oil prices and hopes for renewed US–Iran peace talks—reduced expectations of further monetary tightening. Despite ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, improving diplomatic prospects have supported bond markets, with the Federal Reserve now expected to hold rates steady for an extended period. Policymakers have also indicated that potential rate cuts could be pushed out depending on the persistence of energy-driven Inflation/">Inflation/">Inflation, while investors await key economic data releases for further direction.

Futures Update:  U.S. stock futures were largely flat on Wednesday as investors monitored Middle East peace developments and ongoing Earnings/">Earnings/">Earnings releases. Despite recent Volatility/">Volatility/">Volatility linked to the Iran conflict and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, equities have remained resilient, with the S&P 500 closing near record highs and the Nasdaq/">Nasdaq/">Nasdaq extending a strong rally, gaining 14% over the past 10 sessions in its longest winning streak since 2021.

Stocks surged sharply during Tuesday's Trading session, continuing the strong upward trend established on Monday. All major indices advanced, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq/">Nasdaq/">Nasdaq leading the way. By the end of the day, the indices closed near their session highs. The S&P 500 rose by 81.14 points, or 1.18%, finishing at 6,967.38. It has now regained key moving averages, which bolster a positive outlook and indicate the potential for further gains. The Earnings/">Earnings/">Earnings season has kicked off, which could help propel prices higher. Additionally, the 14-period RSI is trending upward, though it is now in overbought territory—this doesn't show immediate weakness but suggests some caution, as there may be some pause in the upward momentum. Immediate resistance is around 7,140, with support near 6,840.