Markets in Focus as Tariff Moves, Earnings Reports, and Global Risks Shape Outlook

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Index Update

President Trump is considering temporary tariff exemptions on imported vehicles and parts to give manufacturers time to boost U.S. production. At the same time, the Commerce Department launched a national security probe into semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports, potentially paving the way for new tariffs. Investors are also focused on key earnings reports from major firms like Johnson & Johnson and Citigroup. Meanwhile, Boeing shares fell about 3% in premarket trading after reports that China ordered its airlines to halt Boeing aircraft deliveries.

Market Movers

On Monday, the top gainers were Third Harmonic Bio, Inc (+39.84%), followed by Verve Therapeutics, Inc. (+25.46%). On the contrary Bumble Inc (-4.56%) and Children's Place, Inc. (The) (-4.42%) declined the most the same day.

Commodities Update

WTI crude fell toward $61 and Brent dropped below $64.5 per barrel as weak demand and oversupply concerns grew. The IEA cut its 2025 demand forecast, warning of a surplus through 2026. OPEC and the EIA also lowered outlooks due to slower growth and trade tensions. Trump's tariff war has raised fears of a global slowdown, especially in the U.S. and China. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is boosting output, and U.S.-Iran talks could bring more Iranian oil to market.

Gold rose above $3,220 per ounce as trade tensions drove safe-haven demand. Trump is considering tariff exemptions on autos but launched probes into pharma and semiconductors. Fed officials hinted at possible rate cuts if tariffs persist, with markets pricing in 85bps of easing by year-end, though most expect rates to hold for now.

Macro Update

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury rose to 4.39%, partly rebounding from Monday’s sharp drop, as markets reacted to rising trade tensions and recession fears. President Trump hinted at temporary tariff exemptions for auto imports, while the Commerce Department launched new trade probes targeting semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. Trade uncertainty is weighing on investor confidence, with Treasuries losing some safe-haven appeal. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent downplayed the bond market turmoil but noted the government has tools ready if needed.

Futures Update

U.S. stock futures moved higher as investors focused on President Trump’s evolving tariff policy and awaited key corporate earnings. The White House intensified trade probes into pharmaceutical and semiconductor imports, signaling possible new tariffs. Market sentiment improved following a pause on tech-related tariffs and potential relief for auto imports. A Fed survey showed stable medium- and long-term inflation expectations, while Fed Governor Christopher Waller suggested the inflation impact from tariffs might be temporary but warned of significant risks to economic growth.

Stocks showed gains early Monday following the Trump administration's decision to ease strict trade policies with China over the weekend. The S&P 500 index surged by 42.61 points (0.79%), finishing at 5,405.96. The index found support at key levels and appears to be on an upward trajectory, suggesting potential short-term profits, with support at 5,268 and resistance at 5,527. Additionally, the 14-period RSI has recovered from oversold conditions and may continue to increase in the near term.