Markets Remain Volatile as Iran Deadline, Oil Prices, and Inflation Concerns Drive Sentiment

Index Update:  U.S. stocks rose on Monday, led by gains in the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Dow, as optimism around a potential Middle East ceasefire supported sentiment. However, volatility remained elevated amid uncertainty over a looming escalation deadline, while crude oil prices stayed above USD 112 per barrel. Strength in large-cap technology stocks offset declines in select names, though investors remained cautious about the longer-term economic impact of sustained energy disruptions and elevated fuel costs.

Market Movers:  On Monday, the top gainers were Focus Universal Inc.(+71.86%) and Moolec Science SA. (64.60%). On the contrary, High-Trend International Group. (-34.38%) and PMGC Holdings Inc. (-32.87%) declined the most the same day.

Commodities Update:  WTI and Brent crude oil futures remained highly volatile on Tuesday, hovering near USD 114 and USD 110 per barrel respectively, as markets reacted to escalating geopolitical tensions surrounding a U.S. deadline for Iran to ensure uninterrupted transit through the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump warned of potential U.S. strikes on Iranian infrastructure if the deadline is not met, intensifying market uncertainty. The ongoing six-week conflict has significantly disrupted global crude supply, with fresh developments including explosions near Iran’s key oil hub at Kharg Island, missile and drone attacks by Iran on Saudi Arabia, and continued missile exchanges with Israel, all contributing to heightened volatility in oil markets. Gold and silver prices were volatile on Tuesday as markets awaited a U.S. deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and agree to a ceasefire, though escalating hostilities continued to heighten uncertainty. Despite geopolitical tensions, both metals remained below pre-conflict levels, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and reduced expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, which weakened their safe-haven appeal, although China’s recent gold purchases provided some support to sentiment.

Macro Updates:  Mixed Economic Signals: Durable Goods Decline Amid Strengthening Labor Market

U.S. durable goods orders fell for the third consecutive month in February 2026, declining 1.5% to USD 315.5 billion, driven largely by a sharp drop in transportation equipment, particularly nondefense aircraft. However, excluding transportation, orders showed modest growth supported by gains in primary metals and machinery. Meanwhile, the labor market demonstrated resilience, with private employers adding an average of 26,000 jobs per week in the four weeks ending March 21, marking the strongest hiring pace since September 2025 and signaling a notable rebound in employment trends.

Logistics Surge Amid Supply Constraints and Rising Costs

The U.S. Logistics Manager’s Index rose to 65.7 in March 2026, its highest level since May 2022, reflecting strong freight market expansion. Transportation prices surged sharply, driven in part by oil supply disruptions linked to the Iran conflict, while transportation capacity continued to contract, creating a significant imbalance. Inventory levels and costs increased, alongside rising warehousing prices, although warehousing capacity declined and utilization growth slowed, indicating tightening supply chain conditions and elevated cost pressures across logistics.

Bonds Commentary:  The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield hovered near 4.34% on Tuesday, close to one-week highs, as investors monitored Middle East tensions and a U.S. deadline for Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Elevated oil prices and inflation concerns persisted, while markets awaited March CPI data for further direction. Expectations currently point to the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady in the near term.

Futures Update:  U.S. stock futures fluctuated on Tuesday, with investors closely monitoring an approaching U.S. deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Dow futures were largely flat, while S&P 500 futures declined by 6 points or 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures fell by 43 points or 0.2%.

Despite experiencing some intraday volatility, major stock averages maintained a positive bias throughout Monday's session, finishing near their daily highs and building on the significant gains from the previous week. The S&P 500 led the modest rally, advancing 29.14 points, or 0.44%, to close at 6,611.82. However, the technical outlook remains cautious as the index hovers near an immediate resistance zone as indicated by the gray box on the chart, which suggests the potential for a short-term decline from current levels. This bearish sentiment is reinforced by a pattern of lower highs established since late February, signaling an ongoing corrective phase, while downward-trending 50-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) continue to act as a ceiling on momentum. With the 14-period RSI still around the midpoint, the overall bias remains negative, placing high importance on key levels: immediate resistance near 6,655 and primary support