Markets Steady Amid Tariffs, Fed Speculation, and Commodity Swings

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Market Movers:  On Thursday, the top gainers were Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc.(+49.36%), followed by SkyWater Technology, Inc. (+44.87%). On the contrary Redwire Corporation (-30.88%) and Vivid Seats Inc. (-30.18%) declined the most the same day.

Commodities Update:  Brent and WTI crude oil prices edged higher but remain near two-month lows, both set for their steepest weekly drop since late June amid easing supply disruption concerns. Hopes for constructive US-Russia talks on the Ukraine war, alongside expectations of increased OPEC output, have weighed on prices despite fresh US sanctions on India and the threat of additional tariffs on China. Persistent trade tensions and growth worries continue to overshadow the market outlook. Gold prices held firm near recent highs, with NY gold futures hitting a record after the US moved to impose tariffs on certain gold bars, a decision likely to impact Switzerland’s exports. Trade uncertainty, renewed tariff risks, and rising expectations of Fed rate cuts have supported gold, which is on track for a second straight weekly gain

Macro Update: President Trump signed an executive order to expand access to alternative assets like cryptocurrency, private equity, and real estate in the U.S. retirement market, directing regulators to ease rules for inclusion in 401(k) plans and provide legal safeguards for fiduciaries. In a separate order, he called for an investigation into claims of banks denying services based on political beliefs

Bonds Commentary:  The 10-year US Treasury yield held near three-month lows as expectations for Fed rate cuts grew amid soft labor data and tariff-related economic concerns. President Trump nominated Stephen Miran to the Fed’s Board of Governors, while Fed Governor Christopher Waller emerged as a top candidate for central bank chief. Fresh US tariffs of 10% to 41% took effect, adding to worries over economic growth.

Futures Update:  U.S. stock index futures inched higher as investors weighed President Trump’s temporary appointment to the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors and monitored a slowing flow of corporate earnings. Major Wall Street averages closed mixed in the previous session but remain on track for weekly gains, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and NASDAQ Composite all set to advance.

Stocks mostly moved higher during the session but gave back ground throughout Thursday's trading. The major averages pulled back significantly from their session highs before ultimately ending the day mixed. The S&P 500 declined by 5.06 points, or 0.09%, closing at 6,339.99. From a technical standpoint, the index may enter a consolidation phase in the near term, as it exhibits signs of rejection at higher levels. The 14-day RSI remains near the midpoint, indicating sideways movement and indecision at current prices. The 50-period exponential moving average is likely to serve as a support level during future price fluctuations. These support levels are corroborated by other key moving averages below the current price, with critical support around 6,188 and resistance near 6,444.