Tariff Tensions Resurface Amid Record Highs and Volatile Commodities

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Index Update: Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed that new tariffs are set to resume next month, with final rates still under review by President Trump amid ongoing trade negotiations. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that, without a deal, tariffs would return to April 2 levels by August 1. A 90-day tariff reprieve has been extended due to stalled talks. Meanwhile, major U.S. indexes posted strong gains last week on easing trade tensions, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting record highs and the Dow nearing its own peak. Investors now await the upcoming earnings season for further market direction.

Market Movers: On Thursday, the top gainers were Global Interactive Technologies, Inc.(+135.58%), followed by BitMine Immersion Technologies, Inc (+130.77%). On the contrary CID HoldCo, Inc (-26.25%) and Netcapital Inc (- 20.71%) declined the most the same day.

Commodities Updat: Oil prices remained volatile as both WTI and Brent crude hovered near $67 and $69 per barrel, respectively, following OPEC+’s announcement of a larger-than-expected production increase for August. Eight member countries agreed to raise output by 548,000 barrels per day, signaling confidence in market fundamentals and potentially repeating the increase in September. Despite the supply hike, Saudi Arabia raised prices for Asian buyers, indicating ongoing tightness in physical markets. OPEC+ cited a stable global economy as justification for the move, with another review set for early August. Gold prices declined to a one-week low near $3,310 per ounce as safe-haven demand weakened. This came after the U.S. reported progress on multiple trade deals and extended tariff reprieves for several countries, reducing immediate geopolitical tensions. Strong U.S. jobs data also dampened expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in July, with markets now forecasting only two cuts by year-end. Meanwhile, ceasefire talks between Hamas and Israel in Qatar ended without progress.

Macro Update: President Donald Trump announced that countries supporting the "anti-American policies" of the BRICS bloc will face an additional 10% tariff, with no exceptions. While he did not specify what those policies entail, he reiterated that reciprocal tariffs will begin on August 1 for nations without trade agreements with the U.S. The BRICS group, originally including Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, has recently expanded to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Indonesia.

Bonds Commentary: The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield hovered around 4.33% as markets responded to President Trump’s confirmation that reciprocal tariffs will begin on August 1. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted tariffs will revert to earlier levels for countries without trade deals by that date, though partial agreements have been reached with China, the UK, and Vietnam. Yields had risen after strong June jobs data reduced expectations for a Fed rate cut, with 147,000 jobs added and the unemployment rate falling to 4.1%, though wage growth lagged forecasts.

Futures Update: U.S. stock index futures declined on Monday amid growing uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s trade tariff plans. The drop follows recent record highs in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, with markets likely entering a phase of profit-taking after the holiday closure.

Following a sharp upward move during Wednesday’s session, the stock market continued its strength on Thursday, with sustained gains pushing the S&P 500 to new record closing highs once again. The index rose by 51.95 points, or 0.83%, ending the day at 6,279.36. From a technical analysis perspective, the index seems positioned for further gains as it operates in uncharted territory. However, some mild profit-taking cannot be entirely ruled out, especially considering the upcoming July 9th tariff deadline set by the Trump administration. Additionally, the 14-period RSI is trending higher; unless a divergence occurs, the upward momentum is likely to persist. Key support levels are around 6,100, while resistance is anticipated near 6,380.