U.S. Markets Daily Wrap: Stocks Edge Higher, Commodities Rebound, and Rate Cut Bets Strengthen

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Index Update:  U.S. stock futures inched higher as investors monitored corporate earnings and trade policy developments. Gains were supported by strong results from Arista Networks and McDonald’s, while losses in companies like AMD, Walt Disney, Uber, and Super Micro Computer weighed on sentiment. Markets also reacted to President Trump’s announcement of increased tariffs on countries buying Russian energy and plans for new levies on semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports. The US 100 Tech Index fell 0.73% to 23,053, extending its recent weakness. Over the past four weeks, the index has declined by 1.62%.

Market Movers:  On Tuesday, the top gainers were Y-mAbs Therapeutics, Inc (+103.34%), followed by Visionary Holdings Inc. (+89.81%). On the contrary Ostin Technology Group Co., Ltd. (-95.72%) and Acurx Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (-95.65%) declined the most the same day.

Commodities Update:  Crude oil prices rebounded from a multi-week low, ending a four-day losing streak, driven by concerns over potential supply disruptions. Both WTI and Brent futures gained as markets reacted to the possibility of India reducing Russian oil imports amid U.S. tariff threats aimed at pressuring Russia. Support also came from a larger-than-expected drop in U.S. crude inventories, indicating stronger demand. However, gains were limited by oversupply worries following OPEC+'s decision to boost production in September. Gold prices slightly dipped but remained near a two-week high, supported by expectations of a more dovish U.S. monetary policy. Weak economic data, including a decline in the ISM services index and signs of labor market softness, have increased the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut. Additional support for gold came from renewed geopolitical tensions and uncertainty over the Fed's independence following a key resignation.

Macro Update:  U.S. mortgage applications rose 3.1% in the last week of July, the sharpest increase in nearly a month, helped by a 6 basis point drop in mortgage rates. Refinance applications jumped 5.1%, while purchase applications edged up 1.5%. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to 6.77%, the lowest in four weeks, though still higher than 6.55% a year ago.

Bonds Commentary:  The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield held near a three-month low around 4.2% as investors bet on a more dovish Fed stance. Weak ISM services data and escalating tariff threats from President Trump added to economic concerns. Markets now see a high likelihood of a rate cut in September and expect around 60 basis points of easing by year-end. Trump also signaled a new Fed Board nominee and potential replacement for Chair Powell.

Futures Update:  U.S. stock index futures moved slightly higher, rebounding from earlier losses as investors evaluated corporate earnings and weaker economic data. This followed a previous decline driven by concerns over the U.S. economy, particularly after disappointing jobs figures. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones had recently experienced several losing sessions.

After an initial rally yesterday, stocks traded higher early in the session but mostly declined throughout Tuesday. Major averages all moved lower, partially offsetting Monday's significant gains. The S&P 500 dropped by 30.73 points, or 0.49%, closing at 6,299.20. From a technical standpoint, the index may enter a consolidation phase in the near term as it shows rejection from higher levels. The 14-day RSI remains near the midpoint, indicating a sideways trend and indecisiveness at current levels. The 50-period exponential moving averages are likely to serve as support levels during upcoming price fluctuations. These support levels are reinforced by key moving averages below the current price, with critical support around 6,188 and resistance expected near 6,444.