U.S. Markets Up on Trade Deal Hopes, Fed's Cautious Stance; Oil and Gold Struggle

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Index Update

U.S. stock futures climbed around 1% across major indexes, lifted by optimism over a newly announced U.S.-UK trade deal and potential easing of restrictions on chipmakers. Tech megacaps traded higher in premarket activity, supporting overall market sentiment. However, trade tensions with China lingered, as President Trump ruled out tariff reductions ahead of upcoming negotiations. The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates but highlighted rising economic uncertainty and risks of both inflation and unemployment.

Market Movers

On Wednesday, the top gainers were Angi Inc (+33.24%), followed by NerdWallet, Inc (+27.54%). On the contrary       National CineMedia, Inc (-27.59%) and Myriad Genetics, Inc (-21.87%) declined the most the same day.

Commodities Update

Oil prices rebounded slightly, with WTI rising above $58 and Brent above $61 per barrel, supported by a larger-than-expected drop in U.S. crude inventories and early signs of a supply correction. However, gains were limited by concerns over weak gasoline demand, lingering uncertainty in U.S.-China trade talks, and OPEC+ plans to increase production. Prices remained near multi-year lows amid these ongoing headwinds.

Gold continued its decline, trading near $3,330 per ounce, as the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rates reduced demand for the non-yielding asset. While the Fed held rates steady and warned of rising inflation and unemployment risks, Chair Jerome Powell ruled out preemptive rate cuts. Trade tensions with China also persisted, with President Trump refusing to ease tariffs ahead of upcoming negotiations.

Macro Update

The U.S. dollar index rose above 100, gaining momentum on optimism over progress in trade talks and expectations of a U.S.-UK trade deal that could shape future agreements. Despite the Fed holding interest rates steady, Chair Powell highlighted rising economic risks and dismissed the idea of a preemptive rate cut. The dollar showed mixed performance, lagging against the Swedish krona after the Riksbank’s decision, while markets anticipated a rate cut from the Bank of England.

Futures Update

U.S. stock index futures advanced as investors reacted to a significant new trade agreement and the latest Federal Reserve policy update. The Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 futures all posted notable gains. Wall Street also closed higher in the previous session, driven by a rally in Nvidia shares following reports that the Trump administration may ease export restrictions on AI chips. The S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all ended the session in positive territory.

After experiencing mostly downward movement in the previous two trading sessions, equities exhibited notable volatility during Wednesday’s trading session. The major indices fluctuated significantly, often ending the day unchanged, especially in the latter part of the session. The S&P 500 increased by 24.37 points, or 0.43%, closing at 5,631.27. Technical analysis indicates that the market may remain within a specific range for now; however, if prices can consistently surpass key moving averages, there could be potential for further gains. A rising wedge formation is identified on the daily chart, with the price approaching the 50-period exponential moving average, which currently acts as a near-term resistance level. Support is seen at 5,433, while resistance is projected at 5,732.