Weekly Market Snapshot: Trade Optimism Lifts Stocks, Commodities Gain, Fed Signals Caution

Image Source : Krish Capital Pty Ltd

Index Update: President Trump praised the new U.S.-UK trade agreement as a major win for American exports, despite a 10% tariff remaining in place. He also hinted at potential tariff relief for China, depending on the outcome of upcoming trade talks in Switzerland. On Thursday, Wall Street closed higher, with the Dow up 0.62%, the S&P 500 rising 0.58%, and the Nasdaq gaining 1.07%, driven by tech stocks like Tesla, Palantir, and MicroStrategy. After-hours trading saw Affirm and Coinbase drop on weak earnings, while Pinterest jumped 15% on strong Q2 guidance.

Market Movers: On Thursday, the top gainers were  Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. (+28.01%), followed by Dave Inc (+26.04%). On the contrary Krispy Kreme, Inc (-29.33%) and Energy Recovery, Inc (-26.86%) declined the most the same day.

Commodities Update: Oil prices climbed on Friday, with WTI crude nearing $60 per barrel and Brent approaching $63, as optimism over upcoming U.S.-China trade talks and the recently announced U.S.-UK trade agreement lifted market sentiment. Hopes that the world's two largest oil consumers could ease trade tensions helped alleviate demand concerns. Additional support came from a sharp drop in U.S. crude inventories and signs of a potential supply correction, although gains were limited by OPEC+ plans to boost output, despite April production declines in Libya, Venezuela, and Iraq. Gold traded around $3,320 per ounce, stabilizing after recent losses as improved sentiment over global trade reduced demand for safe-haven assets. The U.S.-China and U.S.-UK trade developments weighed on bullion, while the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates steady and signal caution on future cuts added further pressure. Despite recent softness, gold remains on track for a weekly gain.

Macro Update: The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield held above 4.36% on Friday, heading for a second straight weekly gain as improved global trade sentiment and reduced expectations for near-term rate cuts boosted investor confidence. Optimism followed President Trump’s preliminary trade deal with the UK and his openness to easing tariffs on China, pending weekend talks. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell took a more hawkish stance, warning of inflation and labor market risks, and dismissed the idea of a preemptive rate cut.

Futures Update: U.S. stock futures were little changed on Friday as investors evaluated the impact of a newly announced trade agreement between the U.S. and the UK. Dow futures edged down 0.1%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures saw slight gains of 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively. On Thursday, Wall Street's major indexes rose on hopes that the deal could ease global trade tensions. The agreement maintains a 10% U.S. tariff on British imports, but the UK will reduce its tariffs from 5.1% to 1.8% and allow greater access for American goods. Additionally, U.S. tariffs were lifted on Rolls-Royce plane parts, helping boost airline stocks, with Delta Air Lines jumping 7.2% and the S&P 500 passenger airlines index rising 5.4%.

After largely trending higher early in the session, the stocks demonstrated strong performance throughout much of the trading day before pulling back slightly heading into the close. The major indices retreated from their session highs but still ended firmly in positive territory. The S&P 500 gained 32.68 points, or 0.58%, closing at 5,663.95. Technical analysis suggests that the market may remain within a defined range for the time being; however, if prices can consistently break above key moving averages, there could be potential for further upward movement. A rising wedge pattern is observed on the daily chart, with the price nearing the 50-period exponential moving average, which currently serves as a near-term resistance level. Support is identified at 5,500, with resistance expected around 5,842.