Key Highlights

  • Third quarter EPS of USD 2.96 compares with a USD 3.00 estimate; GAAP diluted EPS was USD 2.87.
  • Net sales of USD 1,860 million compare with a USD 1.77 billion estimate and USD 1,659 million last year.
  • Adjusted EBITDA was USD 833 million against USD 667 million, and net Earnings to common stockholders were USD 436 million.
  • Blue Point construction has started at about USD 3.7 billion total cost; Yazoo City is scheduled to resume in 2027.

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:CF) posted third quarter net sales of USD 1,860 million, against USD 1,659 million a year earlier and an estimate of USD 1.77 billion. EPS of USD 2.96 compares with an estimate of USD 3.00, and GAAP net earnings per diluted share were USD 2.87 against USD 2.19 in the third quarter of 2025. Net earnings attributable to common stockholders were USD 436 million, against USD 353 million.

Blue Point and the Plant Network

The nitrogen producer's strategic story this quarter centered on Blue Point, its low-carbon ammonia project. Management said construction has commenced and total project cost remains about USD 3.7 billion, with ammonia production scheduled to start in 2029. Common facilities are put at about USD 550 million. Last-twelve-months Cash Flow includes USD 391 million of contributions from joint venture partners JERA and Mitsui, and the company holds a 40% interest in Blue Point One.

At Yazoo City, management said operations are scheduled to resume in the first half of 2027. For 2026, CF-funded capital expenditures are about USD 950 million, of which about USD 400 million relates to Blue Point, and gross ammonia production is put at about 9.5 million tons. Available ammonia capacity utilization was 97% for the first nine months, and the 12-month rolling recordable incident rate was 0.10 per 200,000 work hours.

Third Quarter Financial Results

Gross Margin was USD 720 million, or 38.7% of net sales, against USD 632 million and 38.1% a year earlier. EBITDA was USD 822 million and adjusted EBITDA was USD 833 million.

The cost of Natural Gas used for production in cost of sales was USD 2.88 per MMBtu, against USD 2.96, while the Henry Hub average price was USD 2.87 against USD 3.03. Diluted weighted-average shares outstanding were 151.6 million against 161.2 million. Capital expenditures were USD 282 million, against USD 347 million.

For the first nine months, net sales were USD 6,068 million against USD 5,212 million, and adjusted EBITDA was USD 3,008 million, which includes a USD 170 million litigation settlement gain.

Cash Generation and Capital Returns

On a last-twelve-months basis through September 30, adjusted EBITDA was USD 3.8 billion, cash from operations was USD 3.1 billion and free cash flow was USD 2.0 billion. Capital returned to shareholders over that period was USD 1.3 billion. About USD 1.1 billion remains in the current USD 2 billion share repurchase authorization, which runs through 2029.

The company noted USD 306 million of deposits paid to Canada related to a United States-Canada Transfer Pricing matter, which is to be applied against tax and interest due once the matter is resolved through bilateral government procedures.

Reference Points for Investors

Net sales of USD 1,860 million sit alongside adjusted EBITDA of USD 833 million, net earnings attributable to common stockholders of USD 436 million and last-twelve-months free cash flow of USD 2.0 billion. The USD 3.7 billion Blue Point project cost and USD 950 million of 2026 CF-funded capital expenditures are the main capital commitments management named.

Management listed its stated priorities as completing Blue Point, returning Yazoo City to operation in the first half of 2027, and pursuing margin enhancement projects and low-carbon monetization through 45Q tax credits. It put its current mid-cycle EBITDA at about USD 2.9 billion and described strategic initiatives that target about USD 3.3 billion around 2030.