Key Highlights

  • Blended third-quarter 2026 S&P 500 Earnings growth was 30.2% as of October 30, according to FactSet (NYSE:FDS), up from 29.5% a week earlier.
  • 82% of reporting companies beat EPS estimates, above the five-year average of 78% and the ten-year average of 77%, with an aggregate surprise of 1.9%.
  • Revenue growth was 13.4%, with 70% of companies beating Revenue estimates, and the Q4 earnings growth estimate was 28.4%.
  • SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 18.7 for the index, below its five-year average of 19.8.

The Numbers

A circulating summary put third-quarter earnings growth near 31% and the beat rate at 83%. The FactSet update for October 30, 2026 shows slightly lower and more precise figures: blended growth of 30.2% and 82% of companies beating estimates. The blended rate combines actual results for companies that have reported with estimates for those that have not. The aggregate surprise of 1.9% means earnings came in 1.9% above analyst estimates in total. Revenue growth of 13.4% shows the gain is not only from margins. These are analyst-firm tallies, not company guidance, and they will change as the last reporters file. Earnings Per Share can be reported on a GAAP basis, which follows accounting rules, or on an adjusted basis, which removes some items, and the tally uses the analysts' consensus basis for each company.

What Valuation Says

The forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio was 18.7 on October 30, compared with 19.0 on September 30, a five-year average of 19.8 and a ten-year average of 19.1. When earnings rise faster than prices, the multiple falls. SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) holds the 500 index stocks by market value, so the largest technology companies drive both its earnings and its multiple. The price-to-earnings ratio divides the index level by expected earnings over the next 12 months, so a rise in earnings estimates lowers the ratio unless prices rise by the same amount. A lower multiple than the five-year average suggests the market is not paying a premium, but it also reflects higher interest rates, since the 10-year Yield was reported near 4.89% to 4.93% on November 2 and 3.

Risks and What to Watch

Growth of 30% is unusual and partly reflects strong comparisons and a few large contributors, so it may not repeat. The Q4 estimate of 28.4% still needs companies to meet higher bars, and estimates usually drift lower before a quarter ends. Analysts often set conservative bars, which helps explain why more than three quarters of companies beat in a typical season. Rates are a key risk: the Fed held at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28, and markets priced about 84% to 85% odds of a December hike. Data Center policy worries after the midterms add risk for SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY), given the weight of AI-linked names. Watch Wednesday's earnings, the jobs report on November 6 and guidance revisions. A gap between a high beat rate and modest price gains can signal that investors had expected more, so reactions to results matter as well as the results themselves. Sector contributions are also uneven, with technology and communication companies often supplying a large share of growth, so the average hides wide differences between industries.

Where Things Stand

Partly. Earnings growth of 30.2% is strong and the beat rate of 82% is above average, yet SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) trades at 18.7 times forward earnings, below its five-year average, so valuation is not stretched on that measure. The evidence is mixed: rising rates and data center policy risk could pressure multiples even if earnings hold. The balance favors fundamentals over the election headlines, and the next checkpoints are the final earnings tallies, the jobs report on November 6 and the Fed meeting on December 8 to 9.