Key Highlights

● Brent futures for December delivery settled at $102.25 a barrel on October 2, 2026, down $0.06, or 0.06%, from Thursday.

● Dated Brent, the physical benchmark, rose above $120 a barrel while futures drifted toward $101 after the G7 announcement.

● OPEC+ agreed on October 4 to keep November quotas unchanged, with seven core members at 31 million barrels a day.

● The Brent and WTI spread widened above $11 a barrel on Monday, with Murban crude quoted at $110.80.

ICE Brent futures for December delivery settled at $102.25 a barrel on Friday, October 2, 2026, down $0.06, or 0.06%, from Thursday’s $102.31. A G7 commitment to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency stocks helped cap the contract. Physical crude told a different story, with Dated Brent rising above $120. On Monday, October 5, intraday quotes put Brent about 0.65% lower near $101.59, which is a trading level, not a settlement.

Two Brent Prices Tell Different Stories

Market commentary shows Dated Brent pushing above $120 while futures slid toward $101. The EIA’s Europe Brent spot series fits that picture, with $113.96 on September 29 and a peak of $120.92 on September 24. A refiner buying prompt cargoes and a trader holding December futures can face very different prices on the same day.

The Futures Contract is a financial benchmark for a single delivery month. Dated Brent reflects cargoes loading within a short window and responds more to immediate shortages. The front-month contract also rolled from November to December during the week. Brent was up about 0.11% on a like-for-like front-month basis, yet a direct comparison with last Friday is misleading because of the roll. Other feeds show a December contract at $101.95 against a previous close of $102.72, and figures differ by feed and time.

Hormuz Flows, OPEC+ and Product Shortages

The conflict between the United States and Iran remains the central driver. Market commentary describes the Strait of Hormuz as functionally closed since hostilities began on February 28, with indirect talks stalled. Industry data, however, show Middle East crude exports exceeded pre-war levels on four of the final seven September days despite attacks on ships, so the actual flow through the strait remains uncertain.

OPEC+ agreed on October 4 to keep November quotas unchanged, with seven core members at a combined 31 million barrels a day. Most members are pumping below Quota because of the conflict. The group also postponed its 2027 quota review.

Refined products are where the pressure now sits. China has suspended October fuel exports, and its diesel stocks are about 20 million barrels below pre-war levels. European governments plan to release up to 50 million barrels of diesel over 20 days. Ukraine is reported to be planning more attacks on Russian refineries.

The Wide Gap to WTI

The spread between Brent and WTI is wide. Market commentary put it above $11 a barrel on Monday, with Murban crude at $110.80, a level linked to tanker shortages, insurance costs and longer voyages. The EIA’s spot data show a gap of about $18 between Europe Brent and Cushing WTI on September 29. These are different instruments and dates, so they should not be compared loosely.

For a company selling Atlantic Basin or Middle East-linked crude, Brent is the more relevant reference. For a US shale producer, the WTI discount may limit the gain from the global price.

Higher prices do not lift every company equally, because hedges, product margins, currency and gas exposure all matter. BP said Brent averaged $103.85 in the second quarter against $81.13 in the first, and its refining indicator Margin rose to $29.6 a barrel. Shell reported adjusted Earnings of $9.8 billion, all-time high Brazilian output and 102% refinery utilization. Woodside Energy reported an average realized price of $74.0 per Barrel of Oil Equivalent in the first half, up 20%, though much of its output is LNG.

Suncor reported all-time high second-quarter funds flow and refinery throughput of 470,600 barrels a day, but its crude is priced off heavy-oil benchmarks, so Brent is an indirect guide. ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) reported a realized price of $62.33 per barrel of oil equivalent, up 36%, and $2.0 billion of buybacks, with its largest onshore Business linked to WTI. These are reported past results, not forecasts. Airlines and importing countries bear the cost of dearer crude.

What Could Lift or Lower Crude From Here

Prices could firm if attacks on tankers continue, if China or Russia maintain product-export restrictions, or if the emergency release proves slower than the market hopes. They could soften if shipping through the Gulf normalizes, if talks resume, or if high prices reduce demand. The UN has warned that global fuel subsidies could pass $1 trillion in 2026, a sign of strain on importers.

Hedging adds a further layer. Producers that sold output forward at lower prices will not see the full benefit of the physical premium, while buyers with fixed-price contracts are partly insulated. Unusually, the main stress is now in refined products rather than crude, so diesel cracks and refinery outages may influence crude as much as barrel-for-barrel supply.

OPEC+ holds its next monthly meeting on November 1, and weekly EIA inventory data arrive on Wednesdays. The Brent futures curve, the Dated Brent premium to futures and any evidence on actual Hormuz volumes will be the key checks. Contract month and benchmark type matter when comparing quotes.