Key Highlights

● Ethanol fell 1.45% to $2.04 per gallon on 13 October 2026.

● Prices are down 1.92% over a month but up 19.30% over a year.

● US ethanol output rose 46,000 barrels per day to 1,053,000.

● Ethanol trades roughly 37.4% below gasoline futures, supporting blending demand.

Ethanol fell to $2.04 (USD) per gallon on 13 October 2026, down $0.03, or 1.45%, from a previous level of $2.07, according to market data tracking the benchmark market for this commodity. Over the past month the price has fallen 1.92%, but it is still 19.30% higher than a year ago. Those percentages imply a price of roughly $2.08 a month ago and about $1.71 twelve months earlier, so ethanol sits about $0.04 per gallon below last month's level and $0.33 above its level a year ago.

Output Edges Higher

Supply data from the US Energy Information Administration show fuel ethanol production rising by 46,000 barrels per day in the week ending 2 October to 1,053,000 barrels per day. That is about 44.2 million gallons per day, and it sits 1.7% below the level of a year ago. Plants have returned from seasonal autumn maintenance, which helps explain softer prices at the start of the harvest season.

Renewable Fuel Standard Anchors Demand

Ethanol demand rests on the Renewable Fuel Standard, administered by the Environmental Protection Agency. The conventional renewable fuel requirement stands at 15 billion gallons annually, the statutory maximum for corn starch-based ethanol. Refiners and fuel importers designated as obligated parties must obtain and retire tradeable credits called Renewable Identification Numbers, and each gallon of conventional corn ethanol generates a D6 credit. The credit market directly influences blending margins and compliance costs.

Corn Feedstock and Crush Margins

Ethanol producers use roughly 35% to 40% of the domestic corn crop. Profitability depends on the crush margin, the spread between corn feedstock costs and the combined revenue from ethanol and co-products such as distillers dried grains and distillers corn oil. Harvest season typically brings heavy corn deliveries to Midwest plants, which tends to keep feedstock costs competitive.

Producers include Archer-Daniels-Midland (NYSE:ADM), Green Plains (NASDAQ:GPRE) and Valero Energy (NYSE:VLO), whose results are closely tied to these margins.

The Gasoline Connection

Over 98% of US gasoline is sold as E10, a blend of 10% ethanol and 90% petroleum blendstock. Blenders combine 84-octane RBOB gasoline with ethanol's 113 octane rating to produce standard 87-octane regular. With gasoline futures quoted near $3.2613 per gallon, ethanol trades roughly $1.22 below, or about 37.4% under, gasoline. That discount gives blenders a strong economic incentive to use ethanol beyond what the federal mandate requires.

Export Demand

Export shipments to Canada, the European Union and Asia provide additional demand and help absorb output when domestic blending is steady. Because export volumes can swing sharply from week to week, they are a key source of volatility in weekly inventory data.

Ethanol's Balance Into Winter

Ethanol is holding well above year-ago levels, supported by a wide discount to gasoline, a fixed federal mandate and steady export demand. Rising output and harvest-season corn supply keep prices from climbing, while gasoline futures and the next EIA reports will guide the direction.