Key Highlights

  • US gasoline futures rose 2.65% to $3.2684 per gallon, reaching a three-week high, though prices remain down 3.55% over the past month despite a 55.70% yearly gain
  • Iran warned of further escalation if the US fails to fully implement an interim deal, while the US threatened military action against Oman and demanded Iran's surrender
  • The average US pump price reached $4.06 per gallon, more than $1 above its level a year earlier
  • Repeated Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries triggered a fresh wave of fuel shortages, prompting Moscow to extend its fuel export restrictions

Gasoline Jumps 2.65% to Three-Week High as Diplomatic Path Narrows

US gasoline futures rose 2.65% to $3.2684 per gallon, reaching a three-week high, as Middle East peace talks stalled and rhetoric between Washington and Tehran hardened further. Iran warned of further escalation if the US fails to fully implement an interim deal, while the US simultaneously threatened military action against Oman and demanded Iran's surrender — a combination of developments that appears to have driven the day's sharp gain even though prices remain down 3.55% over the past month.

At the pump, the average US gasoline price reached $4.06 per gallon, more than $1 above its level a year earlier, reflecting the cumulative effect of a year of elevated crude prices and periodic Supply disruptions tied to the broader conflict. The gap between gasoline's strong daily and yearly gains (up 55.70% over the past year) and its monthly decline suggests the market has pulled back somewhat from a recent peak before Monday's rebound.

Refinery Disruptions in Russia Add a Separate Layer of Pressure

Elsewhere, repeated Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries triggered a fresh wave of fuel shortages, while Moscow extended its fuel export restrictions in response. That disruption to Russian refining capacity has added a second, largely independent source of pressure on global refined product markets, layering on top of the Middle East-driven tension already affecting gasoline prices. Still, continued crude shipments through the Persian Gulf waterway despite the incidents there have helped ease some broader supply concerns, even as the refined product market itself remains volatile.

US Officials Push to Boost Domestic Refining Output

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said he would work with refiners to boost fuel production and ease prices, stating that refiners are currently operating at record capacity. That effort reflects an attempt to address the tightness showing up in gasoline prices specifically, even as the broader crude market has shown more stability than the swings evident in gasoline's own recent price action.

Meanwhile, Russia received at least one gasoline shipment from India, an unusual flow that underscores the extent to which the Ukrainian strikes have disrupted Moscow's own domestic fuel supply, forcing it to seek external sources even as it maintains export restrictions on other refined products.