Key Highlights

● Heating oil futures held near $4.92 a gallon, close to last month's $5.30 record.

● The contract is up 126.25% over a year but down 6.49% over a month.

● Russia-Ukraine strikes erased hopes that the energy ceasefire would hold.

● Persian Gulf tanker attacks keep shipping costs near record highs.

US heating oil futures held above $4.90 per gallon on 14 October 2026, the highest in three weeks and close to last month's record high of $5.30, as unprecedented supply tightness returned to the market's forefront. According to market data, the contract was quoted at $4.9224 (USD) per gallon, down $0.012, or 0.24%, from a previous level near $4.9344.

Over the past month, futures are down 6.49%, but they are up 126.25% from a year ago. Those percentages imply a price of roughly $5.26 a month ago and about $2.18 twelve months earlier, so the contract has more than doubled over the year. The latest quote is about $0.38 per gallon, or 7.1%, below the record.

Strikes Dim Ceasefire Hopes

Russia and Ukraine exchanged strikes against each other's power and gas facilities. The strikes erased already-dim expectations that the energy ceasefire touted by President Trump would hold, stoking fears of continued attacks on major Russian refineries.

Doubts Over Russian Diesel

The developments also deepened doubts that Russia would release 36 million barrels of diesel for export. The pledge faced skepticism upon announcement, as a domestic distillate shortage had prompted Moscow to halt exports last quarter.

Gulf Shipping and Crude Shortages

Attacks on vessels crossing the Persian Gulf kept tanker shipping costs near record highs and curtailed exports from the region. Shortages of crude oil for major refineries had already driven prices to a record high and prompted US officials to briefly consider an export ban.

What the Contract Covers

The New York Harbor ultra-low sulfur diesel contract is listed on the exchange as Heating Oil. Each contract represents 42,000 gallons of diesel with no more than 15 parts per million sulfur. It is the main hedging instrument for road diesel and jet fuel, while its heating oil identity matters to more than 5 million households in New York, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maine and New Hampshire. The East Coast relies heavily on Gulf Coast deliveries through the Colonial Pipeline system, supplemented by cargoes from Europe and Canada.

Forecast and Risks

Market forecasts point to about $4.8846 (USD) per gallon for the fourth quarter, which is $0.0378, or roughly 0.77%, below the latest quote. That suggests analysts expect prices to stay close to current levels, with the outlook tied to refinery attacks, Gulf shipping and Russian export decisions.

Distillate Tightness Into Winter

Heating oil enters the cold season near record territory. Strikes on energy infrastructure, doubts over Russian exports and costly tanker routes leave supply fragile, and any disruption would quickly show up in prices.