Key Highlights

● Gasoline futures rose 0.34% to $3.2613, holding most of their recent losses.

● Futures are down 5.90% over a month but up 77.37% over a year.

● About 12.1% of global refining capacity was offline as of September.

● Russian diesel supplies and Hormuz tanker attacks keep supply risks in focus.

US gasoline futures traded around $3.25 a gallon on Wednesday, 14 October 2026, holding most of their recent losses as traders continued to weigh the impact of fuel supplies from Russia. According to market data, the gasoline futures contract was quoted at $3.2613 (USD) per gallon, up $0.011, or 0.34%, from a previous level near $3.2503.

The small daily gain sits within a softer one-month picture. Futures are down 5.90% over the past month but up 77.37% over the past year. Those percentages imply a price of roughly $3.47 a month ago and about $1.84 twelve months earlier, so wholesale gasoline sits about $0.20 per gallon below last month's level and $1.42 above its level a year ago.

From Futures to the Pump

The futures price is the wholesale starting point for what motorists pay. Retail pump prices add ethanol blending margins, pipeline freight, wholesale rack premiums and combined federal and state fuel taxes on top of that commodity cost. That is why pump prices move more slowly than futures and why they usually follow futures changes with a lag.

Pump prices remain elevated, although they have eased in recent weeks. With 12.1% of global refining capacity offline as of September, supply has little room to respond quickly to demand or crude cost changes.

Russian Diesel Deal Looks Small

Russia had agreed to supply diesel to global markets to help lower fuel prices. Experts believe the deal announced by President Trump is very small, equal to about 10 days of total US demand or slightly more than a single day of global demand. Because refiners can shift output between diesel and gasoline, tightness in one fuel often spills into the other.

Ceasefire Hopes and Tanker Risks

Prospects of a Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire also remain in focus. Russia continued to attack Ukrainian energy facilities, contrary to President Trump's claims of an immediate truce. Both Ukraine and Germany have pushed for strike bans to include Ukrainian electricity infrastructure as well as Russian refineries. Attacks on tankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz also remain risks to feedstock supply.

Winter-Grade Relief

Since mid-September, regulations have allowed refineries to move to higher-volatility winter-grade gasoline, which can include cheaper butane. That seasonal shift expands supply and lowers manufacturing costs, which typically exerts downward pressure on autumn prices. It is one reason pump prices have eased even as crude and geopolitical risks remain elevated.

Why Prices Differ by State

Pump prices vary widely across the country. California requires its own fuel blend, regulated by the California Air Resources Board, and its refining system is largely isolated from Gulf Coast pipelines by the Rocky Mountains. State fuel taxes also differ: California's is roughly 68 cents per gallon, while Texas has charged 20.0 cents per gallon since 1991. Gulf Coast states benefit from dense refining and pipeline access, which keeps logistics costs low.

Forecast and Risks

Market forecasts point to about $3.3858 (USD) per gallon for the fourth quarter, which is $0.1245, or roughly 3.82%, above the latest quote. The outlook depends on whether Russian supply arrives, whether tanker routes stay open and how quickly offline refining capacity returns.

Pump Price Path Into Winter

Wholesale gasoline has pulled back from last month but remains far above year-ago levels. Seasonal blending changes provide some relief, while offline refineries and geopolitical risk keep a floor under prices. Russia-Ukraine developments, Gulf shipping and refinery restarts will shape what drivers pay.