Key Highlights

● Ethanol's latest market-data quote was US$1.94 a gallon, down 5.13%, dated 16 October.

● USDA assessed Illinois truck sales at US$2.10 a gallon, up five cents on the week.

● Fuel ethanol production was 1.065 million barrels a day, with stocks at 23.942 million barrels.

● The final Renewable Fuel Standard rule keeps the conventional category at 15 billion gallons.

Ethanol's latest market-data quote, dated 16 October, was US$1.94 a gallon, down 10.5 cents or 5.13% from the prior reading. The US Department of Agriculture assessed Illinois truck sales at US$2.10 a gallon on the same day, and that price is the revenue line for US ethanol producers such as Green Plains (NASDAQ:GPRE).

The USDA's National Weekly Ethanol Report for Friday 16 October puts Illinois truck sales at US$2.10, up five cents on the week, and Illinois rail sales at US$2.09 to US$2.10. A year earlier the same report showed Illinois at about US$1.79 to US$1.81. Market data puts ethanol 15.48% above a year earlier and 22.20% higher year to date, but 3.60% lower on the week and 4.43% lower on the month. Prices are therefore well above last year's level, with the latest quote easing.

Cheap Corn, Rising Stocks

Ethanol margins sit between two numbers: the price of corn going in and the price of fuel coming out. Corn is lower, which helps producers. Stocks are rising alongside output, which limits how far fuel prices can climb.

A Price Assessed by Region

Ethanol has no single global price, and these figures are US domestic quotes in dollars per gallon, not per barrel or tonne. The USDA table shows a spread across production regions on 16 October. Indiana rail averaged US$2.155, Iowa rail US$1.975 and truck US$2.005, Kansas truck US$1.99, Minnesota truck US$2.04, Nebraska rail US$2.05 and truck US$1.98, and South Dakota truck US$2.03. Apart from the Illinois truck move, most prices were unchanged from the prior week.

Corn and Its Co-Products

US ethanol is made mainly from corn, so feedstock cost matters. The USDA report lists CBOT corn futures settling on 15 October at 478.00 cents a bushel for December 2026 and 491.00 cents for March 2027. December corn was at 468.25 cents on Monday, down 1.27% on the day. Corn is quoted in cents per bushel and ethanol in dollars per gallon, so the two cannot be compared without a conversion.

Co-products help the arithmetic. Dried distillers grains, a livestock feed, were about US$175 to US$220 a ton depending on region, with Illinois up US$10 and Kansas up US$5. Distillers corn oil in Illinois was 70 cents a pound. These by-products offset part of the corn cost, though margins depend on each plant's own purchasing and hedging.

Output and Stocks Are Both Rising

The US Energy Information Administration's weekly data for the week ending 9 October, released on 15 October, shows fuel ethanol production of 1.065 million barrels a day, up from 1.053 million. Stocks were 23.942 million barrels, up from 23.743 million. Output and stocks rising together suggests supply is keeping pace with demand rather than tightening. For comparison, production was 1.111 million barrels a day for the week to 15 May.

Policy and Crude Oil

The Renewable Fuel Standard sets annual volumes that refiners must blend. According to the American Farm Bureau Federation, the final rule for 2026 and 2027 keeps the conventional, largely ethanol, category at 15 billion gallons for each year, and the Environmental Protection Agency redistributed previously exempted small-refinery volumes into future obligations. The rule did not finalise proposed restrictions on import credits. Policy therefore supports a stable domestic demand base, but it does not by itself raise the ethanol price.

Gasoline is the main competing fuel, and ethanol is blended into it. West Texas Intermediate was at US$100.68 a barrel and Brent at about US$108.16 on Monday, both lower on the day, but market data shows both sharply higher over the past year, up about 76% and 77%.

Who Makes and Who Buys

Green Plains reported second-quarter 2026 results via a filing with the US regulator and positions itself as an ethanol and agricultural-technology business. REX American Resources (NYSE:REX) and Alto Ingredients (NASDAQ:ALTO) are also US ethanol producers.

Archer-Daniels-Midland (NYSE:ADM) is a major grain processor and trader with ethanol production, so ethanol is one of several earnings drivers. Valero Energy (NYSE:VLO) is a refiner that also owns ethanol plants, and its crude and fuel margins matter more than ethanol alone. Refiners also buy ethanol for blending, so a higher ethanol price is a cost for some and revenue for others. Where companies hedge corn or ethanol, reported margins can lag spot prices.

Ethanol Watch: Weekly Reports and Third-Quarter Results

The next EIA weekly petroleum report is due on Wednesday 21 October, with the next USDA weekly ethanol report expected later in the week. Lower corn prices, firmer gasoline demand, expanded E15 availability, strong export demand and stable policy volumes could support margins. Higher corn costs, rising stocks, weaker petrol consumption, lower distillers grain prices or a change in blending rules could weigh on them. Third-quarter results from ethanol producers, grain processors and refiners are expected over the coming weeks, and markets will also track the corn harvest and any further guidance from the Environmental Protection Agency on E15 and small-refinery exemptions.