Key Highlights

  • Venture Global shares are trading up 5.37% at $13.34.
  • Third quarter Revenue rose 43% to $4.8 billion.
  • 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance was raised to $10.0 billion to $10.3 billion from $8.7 billion to $9.1 billion.
  • Plaquemines Phase 1 began commercial operations on October 31.
  • CP2 first LNG was pulled forward to July 2027.

Venture Global (NYSE:VG) is trading up 5.37% at $13.34, extending gains after record third quarter results and a sharply higher 2026 outlook. Revenue rose 43% to $4.8 billion, with 124 cargoes. Peer ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) is trading up 0.78%.

Record Quarter

Net income was $2.5 billion, including a $1.4 billion non-cash swap gain that flatters earnings per share. Full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance was raised to $10.0 billion to $10.3 billion from $8.7 billion to $9.1 billion, assuming a $21 to $22 per MMBtu liquefaction fee on remaining cargoes. Each $1 change moves EBITDA by $20 million to $30 million, and 99% of 2026 cargoes are contracted.

Projects on Track

Plaquemines Phase 1 began commercial operations on October 31. First LNG at CP2 was pulled forward to July 2027. The 2027 outlook is maintained at 575 to 625 total cargoes, including 10 to 20 from CP2.

2027 and Beyond

2027 EBITDA and pricing guidance will come on the fourth quarter call, with headwinds expected from Plaquemines contract margins, gas basis, CP2 ramp costs and the power plan. Management expects cumulative 2027 to 2029 EBITDA above $30 billion.

Commercial Momentum

New or increased offtake agreements were signed, including with ConocoPhillips and China Gas, and more 20-year agreements are expected this year. Final Investment decisions for CP2 Phase 3, a 10 million tonne per year project, are expected in early 2027, and for the Plaquemines expansion around mid-2027.

Island-Mode Power

Venture Global is launching an island-mode power Business for data centers, with reservations for up to 16 power islands of about 720 megawatts each, targeting up to about 5 gigawatts by 2031. Analysts flag added Leverage and delayed free cash flow.

Analyst View

Citi lifted its target to $20 from $16, and Morgan Stanley reiterated Buy at $22. Of 11 analysts, eight are bullish and three neutral, with an average target of $17.59 and a range of $14 to $22. Insider selling remains an overhang.

2027 Guidance Decides the Next Move

The fourth quarter call will set the 2027 EBITDA bar. Investors will watch how Plaquemines ramps, whether CP2 holds the July 2027 date and how much Capital the power business draws.

Final investment decisions in early and mid-2027 are further markers.