Key Highlights

  • Upstart (UPST) touched a 52-week low of $23.72, then rose 1.0% to $24.88 pre-market.
  • Short interest is 28.4% of float with 6.9 days to cover.
  • UPST is down 46.2% year-to-date and 17.6% over the past month; market cap is about $2.40 billion.

Upstart Holdings (NASDAQ:UPST) rose 1.0% to $24.88 in pre-market trading after touching a 52-week low of $23.72. The AI lending platform is down 46.2% this year, but 28.4% of its float is sold short with nearly seven days to cover, and a Buy consensus with targets near $40 sets up a potential squeeze if the bottom holds.

Upstart's short interest stands at 28.4 percent of the float. Short interest shows how much stock bears have borrowed and sold, and days to cover shows how long it would take them to buy it back. With almost seven days to cover, shorts could struggle to exit quickly if the stock rallies, which is when a short squeeze can take off.

The problem for Upstart is rates. With the 10-year Treasury Yield near its highest level since 2007, funding costs for consumer loans are rising and Loan buyers are demanding higher returns, which weighs on origination volumes. The company keeps adding partners: Commonwealth Credit Union recently expanded its Upstart relationship into home Equity lines of credit and indirect auto loans. Earnings are due Nov. 3.

Upstart (UPST) Bounces on Heavier Volume

The $0.19 move equaled only about 0.1x the 14-day average true range of $1.27, but trading value of $126.49 million beat the typical $106.08 million. The stock traded between $23.72 and $24.78 and closed near the top, the clearest sign of late-session buying. The 52-week range is $23.72 to $57.95.

UPST Technical Levels: Below Every Average

Upstart trades below its 20-day Moving Average of $26.53, its 50-day of $28.19 and its 200-day of $32.99. Price below all three shows sellers control every time frame.

The 14-day RSI is 37.3. RSI measures buying versus selling pressure on a 0 to 100 scale, and a reading in the high 30s shows weakness approaching oversold levels.

A reclaim of the 20-day average near $26.53 would be the first sign of a turn and could pressure shorts; a break below $23.72 would mean fresh lows.

Analyst View

Analysts remain optimistic, with a Buy consensus (1.58 score) and an average target near $40, about 60% above the current price.