Copper futures climbed above USD 6.21 per pound on May 8, 2026, matching January record highs as AI infrastructure Demand, a China sulphuric acid export ban, and Middle East Supply disruptions reshape the global copper market.

Key Highlights

  • Copper futures climbed above USD 6.21 per pound today, matching the record-close of USD 6.2 reached on January 29, 2026.
  • China has banned sulphuric acid exports from May through at least December, removing approximately 3 million tonnes from the global seaborne market.
  • Chile recorded a 6% output decline in Q1 2026 before accounting for acid supply disruption.
  • Middle East conflict has disrupted sulphuric acid shipments, a critical input in copper refining.
  • Easing energy prices have partially offset demand concerns, but structural supply constraints are increasingly dominant.

A Metal Under Pressure

Copper futures climbed above USD 6.21 per pound today, matching the record-close of USD 6.2 reached on January 29 and marking the highest level since that date. Falling energy prices improved the broader demand outlook for industrial metals, while investor conviction around AI infrastructure buildouts, power grid modernisation, and clean energy transition continues to underpin long-term structural demand for the metal.

The current setup is unusual: demand visibility is strong, while supply disruptions are arriving simultaneously from multiple, largely unrelated directions.

The Sulphuric Acid Constraint

The more structurally significant development is a critical input shock working through the copper refining supply chain. Sulphuric acid is essential in hydrometallurgical copper processing, and its availability is now materially constrained from two directions.

The ongoing Middle East conflict has disrupted seaborne shipments of the compound. Separately, China announced a ban on sulphuric acid exports effective May 2026, running through at least December, removing an estimated 3 million tonnes from the global seaborne market. Chile, Indonesia, and India are among the most exposed importers.

For Chile, this comes at a difficult moment. Output had already contracted by approximately 6% in Q1 2026 compared with the same period a year earlier, even before accounting for the Downstream consequences of acid supply tightening.

Demand Drivers: AI and Infrastructure

Large-scale agreements among major technology firms have accelerated data centre construction, strengthening the longer-term demand outlook given copper's critical role in electrification and grid infrastructure. Renewable energy buildouts and power grid modernisation programmes across the United States, Europe, and Southeast Asia add further multi-year demand visibility. Infrastructure-linked copper consumption follows long Capital Expenditure cycles, providing a durable demand floor that cyclical Manufacturing demand cannot replicate.

Supply Concentration and Market Risk

The global copper supply chain remains heavily concentrated. Chile accounts for the largest share of global mine output, followed by the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Peru, China, and the United States. This concentration amplifies the impact of any localised disruption. The acid supply constraint introduced by the China export ban will compound existing Chilean production pressures through the second half of 2026, with uncertainty around whether alternative sourcing can close the Volume gap.

Valuation and Market Positioning

Copper futures trade on the London Metal Exchange and COMEX, with standard contracts representing 25,000 pounds. Today's return to record territory reflects a market pricing sustained tightness rather than a speculative spike.

The risk profile is asymmetric. Supply constraints are structural and slow to resolve. Demand growth tied to AI, energy, and infrastructure carries multi-year visibility. The principal downside risk is a sharper-than-expected slowdown in Chinese industrial activity, or a faster resolution of the Middle East conflict that restores sulphuric acid flows. Absent either, price support at elevated levels through at least the second half of 2026 appears well-founded, with upside risk if the acid shortfall proves deeper than current estimates suggest.