Key Highlights

  • The Ag Economy Barometer Index fell to 113 points in June, down from 119 in May.
  • Forty-seven percent of respondents cited high input costs as their biggest concern.
  • The Farm Capital Investment Index hit its worst level since September 2024.
  • Fifty-two percent of farmers said they did not anticipate meaningful benefits from AI adoption.

Sentiment Falls to Match Term's Worst Reading

The Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Index fell to 113 points in June, down from 119 points in May, tying January as the worst reading recorded during President Trump's second term in office. The figure represents a substantial decline from June 2025, when the barometer stood at 146, underscoring a significant deterioration in farmer confidence over the past year.

High input costs remained the dominant concern among respondents, with 47 percent identifying rising costs as their biggest worry, while 42 percent indicated these costs were limiting improvements to their financial position this year, both figures representing slight improvements from the May survey despite the overall decline in sentiment.

Few Producers Report Improved Financial Conditions

The survey's Index of Current Conditions component dipped to 102, its lowest score since December 2024, with only 12 percent of respondents indicating their farm operations were better off in June than a year earlier. Roughly 22 percent expected their farms to be in improved financial condition a year from now, while 32 percent anticipated good times over the next five years, though this optimism varied substantially between crop growers at 25 percent and livestock producers at 68 percent.

The Farm Capital Investment Index reached its worst level since September 2024, signalling that producers intend to delay major equipment purchases such as tractors and combines, a pattern consistent with the broader caution reflected across the survey's other components. Low crop and livestock prices ranked as respondents' second biggest concern at 23 percent, a distant second behind input costs.

Broad Skepticism Toward Artificial Intelligence Adoption

This month's survey included new questions examining farmer attitudes toward artificial intelligence adoption in agriculture, revealing substantial skepticism. A majority of 52 percent of farmers did not anticipate meaningful benefits from AI adoption, while among those anticipating benefits, 23 percent identified increased production as the main advantage, 14 percent pointed to reduced labour needs, and 11 percent cited reduced risk or uncertainty.

Respondents also expressed reservations about the practicality of data-driven recommendations, with approximately 63 percent indicating such recommendations would sometimes be difficult to follow and 22 percent saying they would often prove difficult, suggesting meaningful barriers remain before AI tools achieve broader trust and adoption within the agricultural sector.

Conclusion

June's decline in farmer sentiment, driven primarily by persistent input cost concerns, reflects the ongoing financial pressures facing American agricultural producers even as most farmers maintain support for free trade and long-term optimism about land values. The survey's findings on artificial intelligence adoption suggest the technology faces meaningful skepticism within the sector, with over half of respondents doubting meaningful benefits, a dynamic that could shape the pace of AI integration into farming operations going forward.

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.